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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/14)

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From a player prop perspective, bettors could have made a lot of money backing Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson on a daily basis, as he hit his 51st home run on Tuesday night, tying Andruw Jones for the most in franchise history. The Braves have already broken the Los Angeles Dodgers’ NL record for home runs in a season and now have the Minnesota Twins’ MLB record set in 2019 for home runs in their sights.

Which player props from today’s nine game slate are we backing?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ji Hwan Bae Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Nationals (-125) 

Pittsburgh Pirates’ leadoff man Ji Hwan Bae enters this series finale against the Washington Nationals amid an eight-game hitting streak and has hit safely in 13 of his previous 14 games. Bae has scored at least one run in seven games in that span, and his on-base percentage has risen for three straight months, which has us believing he will rebound from a low .289 on-base percentage through 44 at-bats this month.

Bae is one of two Pirates batters that has gotten a hit off Nationals righty Josiah Gray. The other is Bryan Reynolds (3-for-5, .667 wOBA off Gray), who hits directly behind him in the lineup. Gray is seven innings away from exceeding his previous career-high in innings pitched. We expect regression down the stretch, as his 4.8 BB/9 rate is already higher than last year when he issued an NL-worst 66 walks to go along with an MLB-high 38 home runs.

The Over hit 41-23 in Pittsburgh’s last 64 home games (+17.40 units), and we expect Bae to do his part in helping the Over cash once again.

Kodai Senga Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Diamondbacks (-175)

After the New York Mets traded their best two pitchers, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, many stopped paying attention to the team. However, what Kodai Senga has done lately is remarkable and proves he is a starting pitcher the team can build around moving forward. 

Senga has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 consecutive starts and has made six straight quality starts while pitching to a 2.86 ERA in that span. Senga has recorded double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three outings and five-plus strikeouts in eight straight starts. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.9%) against right-handed pitchers on the road this season. However, they have dropped to the middle of the pack (14th) in that split since August 1, as their strikeout rate has increased to 22.3%. Senga has recorded 18-plus outs in six straight starts, which increases his ceiling for strikeouts and bodes well for manager Buck Showalter’s confidence in him to make multiple turns through the batting order.

Arizona’s team total Under is 18-8 in its last 26 road games (+9.29 units), which makes Senga’s odds to go Under this projected earned runs total all the more enticing.

Cavan Biggio Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Rangers (+260)

The Rangers and Blue Jays have combined for nine or more runs in four of their six meetings this year, and we expect another high-scoring affair in this series finale.

Nathan Eovaldi has not had great success against Toronto, allowing a .309/.363/.494 slash line in 94 at-bats to current Blue Jays hitters. He has recorded just four and seven outs in his return from the IL and has given no indication that he is fully recovered from a forearm strain that kept him out for six weeks. However, even if Eovaldi does make it through the Blue Jays lineup a couple of times, Cavan Biggio has had great success in a small sample size against the righty, belting two home runs and posting a .500 wOBA against him in just seven at-bats.

Texas’ starting pitchers ranked in the top-11 with a 3.95 ERA through July 18, but since then have pitched to a 4.44 ERA and thrown the 24th-fewest innings in the majors. That has put a lot of stress on the Rangers’ bullpen, which ranks dead-last in FIP (5.67) and the bottom-10 in WHIP (1.39) in that span. Thus, if Eovaldi does not have his best stuff again, we trust Biggio to plate a run against a bullpen that is pitching on fumes down the stretch.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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