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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/21)

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From a player prop perspective, two of Major League Baseball’s most exciting players have accomplished extraordinary things over the last few days.

Miami Marlins slugger Luis Arraez became the fourth player in franchise history with 200-plus hits in a season, while Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll became the first rookie in MLB history to hit 25 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season (it is also the 13th time a player accomplished this in total).

What other feats will we see down the stretch of the regular season?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Zach Eflin To Record a Win vs. Angels (+140) 

For the second time this week, we are backing a Tampa Bay Rays pitcher to secure a win over the Los Angeles Angels. On Tuesday, we just missed out on cashing Taj Bradley to earn a victory at +185 odds. It was no fault of his own that he did not earn the win, as he allowed just one earned run over five innings and left with a 2-1 lead before the bullpen allowed the Angels to tie the game in the eighth inning. 

Los Angeles has lost six of seven games, with three of the last four losses coming by two or more runs. They seem to have mailed it in at the end of the season after shutting down Shohei Ohtani with an oblique injury. Their offense was sputtering, with an average of 2.2 runs per game over the last six games prior to yesterday’s eight-run breakout. They now face Rays righty Zach Eflin, on a two-start winning streak after beating a pair of 84-plus win teams (Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners) in consecutive outings.

The moneyline trends are definitely in Tampa Bay’s favor, going 51-26 at home (up more than 10 units), while Los Angeles is 29-51 in its last 80 (down more than 23 units). But Tampa Bay has also covered the run line in 53.2% of its home games, while the Angels have covered the run line in 46.1% of their games overall. This game has a low projected total (7.5 runs), but we expect that to result in Eflin throwing a gem while the Rays get to Griffin Canning early. The Angels’ righty has made quality starts in two of his last 10 outings.

Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Total Bases vs. Yankees (-160)

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Gerrit Cole has massive -1800 odds to win the Cy Young Award, which would likely be the only silver lining on an overall disappointing season for the New York Yankees.

Cole leads the league in ERA (2.81), games started (31), innings pitched (192) and ERA+ (155). Bo Bichette has faced him the most of any Toronto Blue Jays hitter (36 at-bats) and has slashed .194/.194/.333 in that span. Three of Bichette’s seven hits against Cole have gone for extra bases, but his power numbers have been down for quite some time now, as he has a .533 OPS over the last 30 days. While Bichette has four multi-hit performances in 11 September games, we would not count on that to cash this line against a pitcher of Cole’s caliber.

Toronto’s team total Under is 68-49 in its last 117 games (+15.39 units), and we expect Cole’s limiting of one of the Blue Jays’ biggest bats at the top of the lineup to help ensure that trend continues.

Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Mets (+180)

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper faces New York Mets southpaw David Peterson, against whom he has slashed .385/.467/.692 in 13 career at-bats. Harper leads the team with a .287 batting average and .392 on-base percentage. His power numbers are much improved in the second half, as he slugged .400 before the All-Star Break and .564 since.

While Harper’s OPS against lefties is 72 points lower than against right-handed pitchers, Peterson’s road ERA is over four runs higher than at home (7.35 to 3.18). Harper should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths as he hits behind Trea Turner, who is slashing .338/.384/.676 in September. Harper has driven in at least one run in five of his previous 10 games, and he is always a great value play to keep producing runs from the heart of a powerful Phillies batting order.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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