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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/28)

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We have been profitable with our last two player prop articles and are coming off a plus-unit day on Tuesday even though just two of our picks played (Braxton Garrett’s game vs. the Mets was rained out) thanks to yet another home run from Ronald Acuna Jr.

Which trio of player props do we have our eye on today?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sawyer Gipson-Long Under Earned Runs Allowed vs. Royals

Sawyer Gipson-Long has made an excellent case to be a fixture in the Detroit Tigers rotation next year, as he has pitched to a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across his first three starts. 

Gipson-Long’s strikeout potential is most appealing, as he has whiffed 20 batters across 15 innings, and neither lefties nor righties are hitting better than .200 against him. The organization’s No. 19 prospect has an even better xERA (2.22) and allowed hard-hit contact (23.5%), well below the MLB average of 36.3%. Sawyer-Long has generated whiffs on more than 30% of each of his three primary pitches. Plus, his xBA and xSLG on his slider and changeup, which he throws a combined 59% of the time, are significantly lower than his actual OBA and slugging percentages allowed. 

Detroit has -110 odds in this game despite going 8-3 against the Kansas City Royals this season, but we expect Gipson-Long to tame a Royals offense that has been held to four or fewer runs in six of their last 10 road games. The two teams must complete a suspended game from yesterday, which is likely why the line for this prop is off the board at the moment. However, the Royals have a team total O/U of 3.5, so we would likely get an O/U on Gipson-Long’s earned runs at 2.5.

Austin Hays Under 0.5 Total Bases vs. Red Sox (+150)

On one hand, Austin Hays leads all Baltimore Orioles qualified hitters with a .276 batting average. On the other hand, Hays is amid one of his worst slumps of the season, as he entered Wednesday with one hit in his previous 16 at-bats and seven strikeouts in that span. Thus, with the way Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale pitched recently, we are focusing more on Hays’ recent stretch and ignoring his career success against Sale.

Sale has returned to vintage form over his last two starts, allowing just five hits and striking out 17 over his previous 11 innings. Sale has been tougher on right-handed hitters than lefties all season, with an OBA 31 points lower in that split. In addition, his xBA, chase percentage and strikeout rate all rank in the 85th percentile or better. 

Hays is slashing .333/.333/.833 in 18 career at-bats against Sale, but we believe he will have difficulty getting out of the funk he is currently in. His slide has lasted longer than just this past week. His batting average has lowered from .314 before the All-Star Break to .235 post-All-Star Break, and his OPS is 167 points lower than the first half. Normally, Hays has an O/U of 1.5 total bases, but oddsmakers setting his line at 0.5 suggests they believe there is a strong chance he goes hitless.

Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Yankees (+165)

Perhaps no hitter on today’s slate has had more career success over as large of a sample size as Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has had against the New York Yankees.

In addition to those outstanding career numbers at home, Bichette has slashed .315/.355/.532 in 62 career games against the Yankees. Entering Wednesday, the .315 average was the second-highest career average against New York among active players (min. 200 plate appearances), and his 40 RBIs against them since 2019 are the third-most of any opposing player. 

Bichette faces Yankees righty Luke Weaver, who has allowed a .317 OBA and 1.62 WHIP, while inducing a GO/AO ratio of 0.62 against right-handed batters this season.

Toronto’s team total Under has cashed in 72 of its last 127 games (+12.44 units), but we expect Bichette to do his part in ensuring that trend reverses tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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