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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/7)

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We are up to three consecutive profitable days with our MLB player prop articles, as we were buoyed by Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mickey Moniak’s ninth-inning RBI on Tuesday to propel us to a solid day overall.

Which MLB player props do we like best today?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Braxton Garrett Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (+125) 

Miami Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo squeaked by his projected 5.5 strikeout total in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, recording his fifth and sixth strikeouts on the final two outs. However, we do not expect similar success for fellow lefty Braxton Garrett, despite a decent start against the Dodgers two weeks ago.

Garrett took the loss against Los Angeles in an August 19 road outing despite throwing a quality start and recording six strikeouts. The six Ks are tied for the most he’s gotten in a start since June 22, but he has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in his four previous starts in August. Garrett ranks in the 51st and 52nd percentile in whiff percentage and strikeout rate, respectively. Still, four combined strikeouts in 12 innings in consecutive starts against the Washington Nationals is concerning, especially when facing another opponent who is familiar with his arsenal after the recent matchup. Garrett induced just one whiff on 33 swings in his last start, and while Los Angeles is only 21-21 against left-handed starting pitchers, the team’s 0.49 BB/K ratio against southpaws is second-best in the majors.

Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run vs. Cardinals (+255)

St. Louis Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright has allowed 16 home runs in 83 1/3 innings this year. To put that into perspective, he allowed 16 home runs in 191 2/3 innings throughout all of last season, and his 1.7 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the worst of his career by far. And he has not had great success against current Braves hitters, allowing a combined .321/.374/.411 slash line in 106 at-bats.

Giving up long balls at a high frequency is a dangerous way to make a living against an Atlanta Braves lineup that is on pace for 311 home runs, which would break the Minnesota Twins’ record of 307 in a season. Wainwright has been equally generous in allowing home runs to hitters on both sides of the plate, as his 1.74 HR/9 rate against lefties is slightly more than his 1.72 rate against righties. Since the two numbers are negligible, we are backing Marcell Ozuna to go hard, as he led all Braves with nine home runs, 25 RBIs, 74 total bases, a .358 batting average, and a 1.131 OPS in August. Ozuna has not gone more than two games without a home run since a four-game drought from August 16-20. He has arguably the best chance of any hitter in this game to homer against a starting pitcher who has allowed two home runs in five of his last 11 starts.

Brandon Drury to score a run vs. Guardians (OFF)

Second baseman Brandon Drury has been a fixture at the top of the Los Angeles Angels lineup as of late. He is tied for the team lead with four runs scored over the last seven days, overcoming a sub-standard .208 batting average and .321 on-base percentage in that span.

Drury has four hits in nine at-bats against Cleveland Guardians righty Cal Quantrill. Quantrill did not show many signs of rust after a nearly two-month layoff in his last start, limiting the Rays to two hits and two earned runs over six innings. However, Quantrill has always been a better pitcher at Progressive Field than in road starts. He has a .750 winning percentage, a 3.55 ERA, and 1.178 WHIP in 69 career home appearances, but only a .444 winning percentage, a 4.34 ERA, and 1.364 WHIP in 58 appearances on the road.

We are getting good value on this wager as Drury has scored a run in four of his previous eight games, and although it would make this a more confident play if Shohei Ohtani were in the lineup for protection after he sat out the last two days with a right oblique injury. Either way, Drury ranks in the top fifth of the league in hard-hit rate and the top third in average exit velocity and barrels, so he should have little issue getting on base against Quantrill with confidence his teammates will produce behind him. This line is off the board as of writing since the Angels have not announced their starting pitching plans, but we fully expect to get generous plus-money odds when it is available.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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