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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/11)

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The Tampa Bay Rays continued rolling with a tenth straight win yesterday, though their 1-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox was their first that did not come by at least four runs. Nevertheless, bettors who wagered on the Rays to be the first team to win ten games easily cashed +900 tickets, and Tampa Bay has the Brewers’ streak of 13 consecutive wins to start the season in 1987 in its sights.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
YTD: 14-15-1 (+1.92 units)

Marcus Semien to score a run vs. Royals

Rangers leadoff hitter Marcus Semien entered Monday tied for second in the team lead in runs (nine), hits (five), and RBI (six), and his 14 total bases were third among all Texas hitters. Though his .298 wOBA against righties in 2022 left something to be desired, Semien had a 47.2% fly ball rate and .184 ISO, which means he is likely to do damage this year from a power standpoint. Semien will need to improve upon his .222 on-base percentage to cross the plate more consistently in the future but has an excellent chance to do so against Royals righty Jordan Lyles. Lyles is slashing .500/.579/.875 in his career against Lyles, and four of his eight hits have gone for extra bases. In addition, Semien has struck out just once in 16 at-bats against Lyles, suggesting he sees the ball well out of his hand.

Texas ranks in the top half of the league in wRC+ against righties and in runs scored, so DraftKings provides excellent value for Semien to cross the plate tonight.

Bet: Semien to score a run (-125 at DraftKings) 

Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Marlins

Phillies righty Aaron Nola is coming off a season where he led the league with a 1.3 BB/9 rate and 8.10 strikeouts per win. Thus, we are not too worried about his lack of control this season, as Nola’s 2.8 walks per nine innings through two starts are on pace to be the third-worst of his career. Instead, we are encouraged by the three hard-hit balls he allowed in his last start against New York, though Yankees ace Gerrit Cole outdueled him. 

The Phillies are just 35-50 in Nola’s previous 85 regular season starts, which aligns with his bad luck in his career against Miami. Nola is 5-8 with a respectable 3.18 ERA in 20 career starts against the Marlins. However, his 1.013 WHIP against the Marlins is easily his best against any NL East opponent, and his overall career ERA, WHIP, K/9, and winning percentage are all better in night starts than day starts. Thus, we expect a big outing from Nola, who has limited current Marlins to a .151/.226/.234 slash line in 93 combined at-bats.

The Under has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last seven home games, and we expect Nola to do his part to ensure it cashes again.

Bet: Nola Under 2.5 earned runs (-170 at DraftKings)

Mookie Betts to record an RBI vs. Giants

Mookie Betts is one of four Dodgers to play every game this season, yet entered Monday ranked fifth on the team in total bases (16). However, his most disappointing statistic entering Monday was his two RBI, especially since he had 80 or more in five of the previous seven seasons. He has an opportunity to continue yesterday’s hot streak (3-for-5 with a home run, two RBI) against Giants southpaw Alex Wood, who he has owned in the past. Betts has accumulated an absurd 2.188 OPS against Wood, as five of hits nine hits in 14 at-bats have gone for extra bases, including three home runs. Wood allowed an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph in his first start (his previous career worst for a season was 89.7), and his xERA of 5.74 compared to his actual ERA of 3.00 suggests there is likely to be early regression following a short three-inning stint.

Betts still has a hard-hit percentage and xwOBA that ranks in the top third of the league, so we expect the offensive results will follow once he works on his plate discipline (56th percentile in strikeout percentage). However, he does not have to worry much about striking out against Wood, as the lefty K’ed 16.7% of batters faced in his first start, which would be his career low if extrapolated over an entire season.

Bet: Betts to record an RBI (OFF at DraftKings, +125 at FanDuel)

Also, check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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