MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/18)
A more than full 17-game Major League Baseball slate thanks to two doubleheaders gives us plenty of options to cash in from a player prop perspective.
Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
YTD: 18-25-1 (-4.36 units)
Alex Wood Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Marlins
Giants southpaw Alex Wood will never be a hot commodity in the fantasy baseball world, given that he ranks in the bottom half of all starting pitchers (43rd percentile) in strikeouts. However, his 1.17 ERA through two starts is something to note, even if his 4.83 xERA suggests regression is coming. However, Miami is not the offense to take advantage of a contact pitcher like Wood, given that the Under on its team total has gone 11-5-1 this season.
The Marlins rank in the league’s top half in BABIP but have yet to do much damage with those opportunities, ranking 22nd and 24th in ISO and wRC+. And historical trends suggest things will not improve against Wood, as he has held current Marlins to a .211/.273/.311 slash line. Wood is 5-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) at Marlins Park. In addition, his 3.43 ERA in March and April is the second-lowest of any month of his career, despite making the second-most amount of starts (34) in those months.
Bet: Wood Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Clarke Schmidt Over 4.5 Hits Allowed vs. Angels
The Yankees made Clarke Schmidt their Day Two starter with pitching injuries to Frankie Montas, Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodon. However, Schmidt has yet to pitch to that potential, with an 8.44 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 10.2 innings this season. Much of those struggles are attributed to being unable to get left-handed hitters out consistently. Schmidt had allowed lefties to hit .433 with an on-base percentage of .500 this year, which does not bode well for facing Shohei Ohtani and company. In addition, Schmidt has allowed an OBA of .320 the first time through the order, which rises to .381 the second time he faces opposing batters.
New York had yesterday off, and the Yankees bullpen is even more rested after Gerrit Cole threw the fourth complete-game shutout of his career on Sunday. Thus, this play is risky with manager Aaron Boone likely having a short leash with Schmidt, given how his numbers worsen considerably the deeper he pitches into a game. However, the odds make a small wager worth it, and are much more appealing than the -295 odds that Schmidt will not earn a win.
Bet: Schmidt Over 4.5 hits allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Jose Abreu Under 1.5 total bases vs. Blue Jays
Perhaps the White Sox knew what they were doing when they allowed slugger Jose Abreu to walk and be signed by the Astros to a three-year deal. Abreu entered Monday with the lowest WAR (-0.3) of any hitter on the team, as his .282 on-base percentage and .269 slugging percentage are not up to par from a hitter regularly slotted in the cleanup spot. Moreover, the 36-year-old Abreu has been declining before this year, as his 15 home runs in 157 games in 2022 were half as many as any previous season where he played at least 145 games.
Abreu is not likely to break out of his homerless drought against Toronto’s Chris Bassitt, against whom he is just 3-for-13 with no extra-base hits. Abreu’s average exit velocity ranks in the 16th percentile, and he is not barreling many balls either (26th percentile). Houston entered Monday uncharacteristically out of the top five in runs scored in the American League. Abreu’s struggles (along with untimely injuries to Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley) are big reasons why.
Bet: Abreu Under 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.