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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/25)

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The Tampa Bay Rays became the first team in the modern era to start the season with 14 straight home wins, beating the Houston Astros 8-3 last night. It was not all good news for the Rays though, as their 22-game streak with at least one home run came to an end. Meanwhile, Astros infielder Mauricio Dubon will attempt to make more history tonight, as another hit would bring his hitting streak to 19 games and tie the franchise record for the longest hitting streak before May 1. How does this high profile Astros-Rays game work its way in to our best MLB player props column?

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Logan Gilbert Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Phillies

One quick glance at Seattle righty Logan Gilbert’s career home and road splits, and the first thing that jumps off the page is his .824 road winning percentage (14-3 in 31 starts) versus a .400 winning percentage at home (6-9 in 29 starts). However, his road ERA is only 0.15 runs lower, his road WHIP is higher (1.200 compared to 1.130 at home), and his K/9 rates (9.0 at home, 9.1 on the road) are nearly identical. Thus, Gilbert’s gaudy .824 road winning percentage is a product of the elite run support he has gotten. However, while Seattle may again break out the bats in a big way with Gilbert on the mound, we also expect the righty to struggle, as he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in wRC+ and first in BABIP at home against right-handed pitchers this season.

The Over is 5-1-3 in the previous nine meetings between these teams and is 2-0-2 in the last four in Philadelphia. Thus, we support these trends and expect the Phillies to do their part in scoring runs, in large part because we expect regression to Gilbert’s hard-hit percentage allowed, which Luke Arkins alluded to on Twitter.

Bet: Gilbert Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 at DraftKings) 

Joe Ryan Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Yankees

Minnesota’s Joe Ryan entered Monday as one of four pitchers with a 4-0 record but the only one to have achieved that record in four starts (Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, and Kyle Gibson have all made five starts). While his 3.24 ERA may not jump off the page, his 2.46 xERA suggests he has pitched much better, and he now faces a Yankees lineup that does not seem as intimidating with the void left by Giancarlo Stanton’s injury in the middle of the lineup.

New York ranks 19th in BABIP and outside the top ten in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and BB/K ratio on the road this year. The Yankees will have difficulty putting many balls in play, as Ryan ranks in the 85th percentile in strikeout percentage and 80th in xBA. He also does not issue many free passes, ranking in the 88th percentile in walk percentage.

The Under is 25-9 in New York’s last 34 games and has cashed in each of its previous seven against right-handed starting pitchers. We love the Under on Ryan’s earned runs allowed, as the cold Minnesota weather should favor the pitchers.

Bet: Ryan Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-175 at DraftKings)

Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 Hits vs. Rays

Mauricio Dubon was thought of by many as merely a utility player and one thrust into the Astros lineup out of necessity to bridge the gap until Jose Altuve returns from injury. However, Dubon’s .325 batting average and 109 OPS+ suggest he has earned the right to an everyday role once Altuve returns. This is a bold prediction, as Dubon’s 18-game hitting streak is the longest in the majors this season. However, we expect regression for a career .252 hitter and one who had not batted higher than .240 in the two previous seasons.

Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen is a big reason Rays starters entered Monday, leading the league in ERA (2.54) and xFIP (3.03). In addition, his 0.94 WHIP is second among all Rays starters, and his 5.6 H/9 rate is on pace to be by far the lowest of his career.  

Bet: Dubon Under 0.5 hits (+195 at DraftKings)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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