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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/4)

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Entering Monday, the Major League Baseball stolen base success rate was 84.4%, which was on pace to be the highest in the Divisional Era. That is a big reason Yankees rookie Anthony Volpe became the fifth player since 1901 to steal a base in his first three career games. While no stolen base props made their way into today’s column, it is something we will keep an eye on in the future if bags continue to be swiped with this regularity.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

YTD: 7-5 (+4.85 units)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

Kris Bubic Under 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

Royals southpaw Kris Bubic’s 5.58 ERA was the fourth-worst of any starting pitcher who threw a minimum of 120 innings last year. Thus, we do not expect him to last very long against a Blue Jays lineup that ranked second in the American League with 775 runs scored last year. Bubic’s xSLG, xBA, and XERA/xwOBA were all in the ninth percentile or worse, and his 44.9% hard-hit percentage suggests the Blue Jays lineup should do damage in this game. Lastly, Bubic ranked in the 22nd percentile in K% last season, and Toronto’s hitters had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate a season ago.

The Over has cashed in each of Toronto’s last five games against a left-handed starter, which also bodes well for a short outing from Bubic, and minimal chances to hit the Over on this prop.

Bet: Kris Bubic Under 3.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings) 

Sandy Alcantara to record a win vs. the Twins

Among the many impressive things in Sandy Alcantara’s Cy Young campaign last year (the first Cy Young winner in Marlins history) was the fact that the Marlins went 19-14 in his starts despite finishing 24 games under .500. And while Minnesota is one of two remaining unbeaten teams left in the league, it is about to meet its match against the imposing righty.

Going the required number of innings will not be an issue for Alcantara, as he went 7+ innings in 22 of his 32 starts last year, which was the most since Chris Sale went that deep in 23 games in 2016. His 2.28 ERA was second only to Julio Urias, and he threw the most innings (228.2) and complete games (six) in the majors. Alcantara was undone by four walks (though he allowed just three hits) against the Mets, but we are not concerned about a lack of control going forward, as his 5.6% walk rate last year was the lowest of his career. 

The Twins were 51-62 against righties last year, and their 39-53 against teams over .500 suggests they are not in a position to compete against one of the best pitchers in baseball on the road.

Bet: Sandy Alcantara to record a win (+140 at DraftKings)

German Marquez Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. the Dodgers

Rockies starter German Marquez had a 2022 to forget, as his 4.95 ERA, 4.49 xERA, and 1.4 WAR were all his worst since his rookie year when he appeared in just six games. However, much of that was a product of pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field, as his 3.34 road ERA was much more respectable. Marquez entered the season with a career 3.76 road ERA and pitched brilliantly on Opening Day at Petco Park, limiting the high-powered Padres lineup to five hits and two runs over six innings. 

Marquez must be careful with David Peralta, who has a career slash line of .327/.377/.551 against him. However, the Rockies ace has had decent success against L.A.’s 1-2 hitters, as Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have career wOBAs of .318 and .308 against him. 

The Under is 18-8-2 in the previous 28 meetings between these teams and has cashed in four of the previous five in Los Angeles. We expect Marquez to be responsible for keeping these trends in order by pitching well tonight.

Bet: German Marquez Under 2.5 earned runs (-120 at DraftKings)

Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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