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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/16)

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A full 15-game Major League Baseball slate gives us plenty of betting opportunities, and our top wagers include two pitcher props and one batter prop.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Brewers (+115 at DraftKings) 

Nolan Arenado has done precisely what a cleanup hitter should do lately, driving in runs at an elite clip. Arenado’s 30 RBIs rank him in the top 13 of the majors. He was red-hot against the Red Sox over the weekend, homering in all three games and going 7-for-14 at the plate, and followed that up with another home run and four RBIs in Monday’s series opener against the Milwaukee Brewers. Arenado has now hit safely in six straight games and driven in a run in eight of nine. Thus, DraftKings’ +115 odds for him to plate another run is good value considering he is batting .391 (9-for-23) in his career against today’s starter, Wade Miley. 

Teammate and defending NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt is also slashing .500/.579/.938 in his career against Miley and should provide traffic on the bases paths for Arenado to work with. The duo is a big reason the Cardinals are amid their best stretch of the season, winning seven of eight games and consecutive road series. The Over is 10-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 12 home games, and we expect Arenado’s ability to drive in runs to be a big reason for the Cardinals’ offensive success tonight.

Michael Lorenzen to record a win vs. Pirates (+160 at DraftKings)

The Pittsburgh Pirates made MLB history entering Sunday’s series finale against the Baltimore Orioles, as OptaSTATS explained on Twitter.

The Pirates snapped a streak of 12 consecutive games scoring three or fewer runs, but just barely, in their 4-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. But while they got another dominating performance on the mound from Mitch Keller in that game, tonight’s starter does not instill the same confidence.

Luis Ortiz is winless (0-3) in five career Major League starts, and his 4.29 ERA reflects his 18:11 K:BB ratio. Ortiz is opposed by Detroit’s Michael Lorenzen, whose 3.99 xERA is slightly better than his actual 4.18 ERA. In addition, Lorenzen is on pace for his best walk rate (6.0%) of his career, and he is of two Tigers starters with a positive WAR rating, largely because he has made quality starts in 40% of his appearances.

Pittsburgh may be seven games over .500 (15-8) against teams with losing records, but Detroit has played more consistent baseball with series wins in three of its last four. Detroit has also won four of the previous five meetings between these teams. With the Pirates ranking last in the league by a wide margin in slugging over the last seven days (they are slugging .287 while the next-worst team is at .320), we are opting for better value with Lorenzen picking up the victory in a game we expect the Tigers to win.

Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs allowed vs. Giants (-105 at DraftKings)

The San Francisco Giants have had plenty of opportunities to break out the bats against subpar pitchers over the last six weeks but have consistently failed to take advantage. Steven Kennedy laid out in the McCovey Chronicles that the Giants have faced six pitchers since April 2 that currently sport an ERA of 4.30 or higher (the MLB average entering Monday was 4.29) that held the Giants to one or fewer runs. Thus, Jhony Brito, Dylan Cease, Brad Keller, Joey Lucchessi, Miles Mikolas, and Brandon Pfaadt is not exactly a murderer’s row of pitchers, which makes facing a pitcher with a top-two Cy Young finish seem all the more daunting.

While Zack Wheeler’s 3.80 ERA is on pace to be his worst since 2019, history says he is due for a bounce-back start against the Giants, especially since his 3.38 xERA suggested positive regression was looming. Do not expect much hard contact against Wheeler, who ranks in the 95th percentile or better in barrels and average exit velocity. He should add to the Giants’ struggles against right-handed starting pitchers, as their 9-18 record against righties is the worst in the National League.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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