Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/23)

by |

Six games between teams with winning records provide some early-week excitement around Major League Baseball. We dive into player props for the day’s best matchups, including two plays involving pitchers and one with a scalding-hot batter.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday:

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Taj Bradley to record a win vs. Blue Jays (+185) 

This play has much more to do with us fading Jose Berrios than supporting Taj Bradley. Berrios has always been a much worse pitcher on the road than at home, and this year’s numbers support those splits.

Berrios has pitched four more innings on the road than at home this year, and his ERA and WHIP are 6.67 and 1.447 away from home compared to 2.22 and 1.027 at the Rogers Centre. In addition, Berrios is 0-3 with an 8.68 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. He’s facing a Rays offense that leads the Majors in nearly every statistical category, which does not inspire much confidence in Berrios.

The Rays are 3-1 with a run differential of +16 in Bradley’s four starts. With Bradley earning the win in all three of those victories, we find much more value in his odds than in backing Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds from the onset. There is slight risk involved, considering he has just barely pitched the necessary five innings to earn a win in each of his starts. However, he should not be listed at worse odds than Berrios for this wager.

Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Pirates (+110)

Sarah Langs mentioned on Twitter how rare of a pitcher’s duel we saw on Sunday night between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets.

With starting pitchers going deep into games becoming more of a rarity, Nathan Eovaldi’s active streak of four consecutive starts with at least seven innings (he has thrown eight or more in three of those starts) pitched is all the more impressive.

Eovaldi has not recorded fewer than five strikeouts in a game all season, and he is on pace for his fourth season in the previous five years with a K/9 rate of more than 9.1. In addition, he ranks in the top third of the league in K% and chase rate and has generated a whiff percentage of 23% or higher on four of his five primary pitches.

Since the calendar turned to May, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been dreadful, scoring the fewest runs (53) in the Majors. Thus, this is a confident four-star play, as the Pirates are also one of two teams with a negative offensive WAR rating in that span and have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) in the league.

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Cubs (+140)

The New York Mets enter this series with the Chicago Cubs on a five-game winning streak. And while that may not be sustainable since all five wins have been by one run, their offensive production to lead that surge has been encouraging. The Mets have scored five-plus runs in four of the last six games, largely because of Pete Alonso’s 10 RBIs over the previous seven days. Alonso has been the epitome of an “all-or-nothing” hitter in that stretch, as four of his six hits (in 29 at-bats) have been home runs. However, the Mets consistently put more traffic on the basepaths in front of him, so he should have more opportunities to drive in runs other than doing it himself by leaving the yard.

Alonso is 3-for-11 in his career against Drew Smyly but has an impressive .970 OPS thanks to two extra-base hits (including one home run). Smyly’s ground ball rate (35%) is on pace to be his lowest since 2019, which means Alonso should do damage with elevated balls, especially if the wind at Wrigley Field is cooperating.

The Over has cashed in each of Chicago’s last six games against teams with a winning record. With Alonso slugging .544 against southpaws versus .520 against righties, he is in his better-hitting split with more of a chance to drive in runs.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App