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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/9)

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We were profitable in all three of these columns last week, culminating in Saturday’s 3-0 sweep to end the week. To start this week, we have identified three pitching props that caught our eye.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Shane Bieber Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Tigers

Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber is 8-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 12 career starts against the Detroit Tigers. That is the lowest ERA against any opponent he has made at least five starts against, and his 11.4 K/9 rate in those starts (105 strikeouts in 83 innings) are big reasons we are getting an inflated number on Bieber’s strikeout total today. 

Since a seven-strikeout performance in his second start of the year against the Oakland Athletics, Bieber has struck out four batters in five consecutive starts. In addition, Bieber’s K/9 rate has declined each year since his Cy Young year of 2020 (14.2 K/9 that year) but is down to a 5.9 K/9 rate this year. 

While Bieber’s ERA is a respectable 2.96, his xERA of 4.86 is more in line with the analytics that has him in the bottom-fifth of the league in xBA, whiff percentage, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity.   

Detroit entered Monday with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate over the last seven days, and we expect it to take an aggressive approach at the plate and make contact early in counts tonight. In addition, the Over is 4-0-1 in Detroit’s last five road games and has cashed in six of its previous seven games overall, which means a shorter outing could be in store for Bieber.

Bet: Bieber Under 6.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings) 

Jordan Lyles Over 2.5 earned runs vs. White Sox

Jordan Lyles leads the league with five losses through seven starts thus far. Though his H/9 rate is the lowest it has been since 2019, Lyles has struggled with keeping the ball in the yard, as his 2.5 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. The Chicago White Sox have been a thorn in his side his entire career, and he has been tagged for a .314/.362/.518 slash line in 118 combined at-bats against current White Sox hitters. Lyles will have his hands full with Luis Robert in particular, as he has at least one extra-base hit in five of six games and a seven-game hitting streak in total. In addition, no starting pitcher has completed six innings in four straight games against Chicago, which suggests Lyles should be in for a rough outing.

Lyles ranks in the tenth percentile or worse in whiff percentage, barrel percentage, and xSLG, and we expect a White Sox lineup that has averaged 6.8 per game over the last eight games to have a productive day once again.

Bet: Lyles Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-155 at DraftKings)

Nick Pivetta Under 3.5 earned runs allowed vs. Braves

At first glance, the Atlanta Braves’ 188 runs scored (second-most in the National League) are eye-popping. And while the Braves have scored 5+ runs in 20 of 35 games this season, in home games against right-handed pitching, Atlanta ranks 19th or worse in ISO, wRC+, and BABIP. 

Now the Braves face Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta, who is coming off his first quality start of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays after allowing three earned runs over six innings. Pivetta’s two road starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have been two of his best (three earned runs, 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings). That should help offset that Pivetta ranks in the ninth percentile or worse in xSLG, hard-hit percentage, and barrels.

This is a contrarian play, as the Over is 18-6-3 in the previous 27 meetings between these teams and is 9-1-1 in the last 11 in Atlanta. However, the Braves’ home splits against righties are too big to ignore, and we could benefit from more unearned runs, which have accounted for 12.5% of Pivetta’s runs allowed this season.

Bet: Pivetta Under 3.5 earned runs allowed (-155 at DraftKings)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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