MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/13)
Congratulations to Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who, over the weekend, joined Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, and Nelson Cruz as the only active players with 2,000+ hits. In today’s column, we look at another batter tracking to end their career with 2,000 or more hits and back two other pitcher props.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases vs. Orioles (-120)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled in the power department this year, with just one home run in June and just one home run in his previous 18 games altogether. He is on pace to hit 23 home runs this year (just two years removed from leading the league with 48 dingers), which would be his lowest in a full season since hitting 15 in his rookie year.
He is facing one of the best possible pitchers to break out of this slump, as he is slashing .375/.444/1.188 with four home runs in 16 at-bats against Baltimore’s Dean Kremer. And he loves hitting at Camden Yards in general, as he has belted seven home runs in 30 games and has 71 total bases in that span. However, if you had fears over Guerrero’s home run drought, we suggest backing the Over on his total bases prop. He has still cashed this wager in four of 11 June games, despite recording three extra-base hits in 45 at-bats dating back to May 31.
Do not bank on the rest of the top of the Blue Jays lineup (George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Matt Chapman) to provide much protection for Guerrero, as those three are a combined 3-for-37 with zero extra-base hits against Kremer. However, we still feel Guerrero can put the offense on his back, as five of his six career hits against Kremer have gone for extra bases.
Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (-155)
Luis Severino pitched to an uninspiring 5.75 ERA through four starts this season, and his xERA is higher at 6.22. Something is clearly off with Severino, as he has had a K/9 rate of at least 9.9 every year since 2017, but his 8.0 K/9 rate this year is on pace to be the worst of his career.
Not only is Severino not whiffing batters at his usual elite rate, but he has allowed 20 hard-hit balls over his last seven innings, per Mike Daddino. He has allowed an xBA of .365 on his fastball, a pitch he throws 48.2% of the time. He has not thrown more than 86 pitches in any start this season, so length is always an issue. And his strikeout total once again has a low ceiling considering the New York Mets have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.4%) of any team in baseball this season.
Hunter Brown to record a win vs. Nationals (+115)
Houston Astros rookie Hunter Brown is a strikeout machine, with 8+ strikeouts in four of his last five starts. That stretch helped him make history, per Michael Schwab on Twitter.
And Brown has been especially tough on lefties, as his .198 OBA to left-handed hitters ranks in the top ten among all qualified starting pitchers, per Inside Edge.
However, instead of backing Brown’s strikeout prop, we are getting better odds backing him to win in this series opener against the Washington Nationals. Houston is an MLB-best 56-28 after a loss since last season and is 61-12 (.836) when it has hit two or more home runs, much higher than the league average of .699 entering Monday, per Inside Edge. The Astros will likely hit for power when facing Patrick Corbin, as the southpaw has allowed at least one home run in three of his last four starts. And that home run rate is much worse on the road, surrendering seven home runs in 28 1/3 road innings compared to four home runs in 45 1/3 innings at home.
The Astros have won each of their last five interleague home games against left-handed starters, and this number for Brown to earn the win is appealing despite Washington going 13-3 in its previous 16 games in Houston.
Make sure to check out all of our best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions
- NHL Stanley Cup Finals Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Game 5 (Panthers vs. Golden Knights)
- WNBA Best Bets, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.