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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/20)

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From a player prop perspective, there was much to be impressed about over the weekend, from Lance Lynn tying the record for most strikeouts in a game in Chicago White Sox history (16) to Julio Rodriguez being the second-fastest of any player in MLB history to reach 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases. And then there was this update from Sarah Langs on Twitter on Sunday night regarding Shohei Ohtani…

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jorge Soler Over 1.5 total bases vs. Blue Jays (+125) 

This wager aligns perfectly with a southpaw that has struggled against right-handed batters and a slugger that has mashed left-handed pitching.

Miami Marlins outfielder Jorge Soler has mashed left-handed pitching this year, slugging .860 with a 1.301 OPS and .526 ISO. His 241 wRC+ against lefties is by far the best in the majors, as the next closest hitter is Fernando Tatis Jr., with a wRC+ of 217. Nine of Soler’s 21 home runs have come against lefties (in just 57 at-bats), despite 132 fewer at-bats in that split entering Monday. Soler has taken Toronto Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi deep twice in six career at-bats and has an excellent chance to do so again since Kikuchi had surrendered an MLB-worst 19 home runs entering Monday.

Kikuchi has allowed 16 of his 19 home runs to right-handed batters and ranks in the 14th percentile or worse in barrels and xSLG. Thus, we expect Soler to cash this wager for just the fifth time in the last 13 games.

Austin Riley Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Phillies (+140)

Surprisingly, Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley has not been an integral part of the team’s offensive success lately, which makes us think he is due for positive regression.

The Braves entered Monday with 61 runs scored over the last seven days, nine more than the next-best team (the San Francisco Giants) and 18 more than the third-most. Not surprisingly, Atlanta leads the majors in on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA in that span.

Atlanta now faces Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez, who has allowed an OBA of .298 and a WHIP of 1.57 when pitching to right-handed batters, versus a .133 OBA and 0.56 WHIP against lefties. And while Riley has gone just 5-for-29 with one RBI over the last seven days, he is often in a prime position to drive in runs batting third in the powerful Braves lineup.

Riley is 5-for-12 with a 1.117 OPS in his career against Suarez and will have to do the heavy lifting given that teammates Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies are a combined 4-for-22 with just one extra-base hit against the lefty. The Over is 8-2-1 in the previous 11 meetings between these teams and has cashed in each of the last five in Philadelphia. We expect Riley to be a part of another high-scoring game tonight.

Ben Lively to record a win vs. Rockies (+155)

The odds on this wager are too good to pass up, given the Cincinnati Reds’ recent success and how poor the Colorado Rockies have been on the road.

The Cincinnati Reds mash against left-handed pitchers. However, Cincinnati was always due for regression in that metric, considering it entered Monday ranked fourth in BABIP (.351) and seventh in wOBA against southpaws at home.

Cincinnati’s offensive success should continue against Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who has pitched to a 5.92 ERA in seven road starts compared to a 3.19 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field. And Reds starter Ben Lively seemingly always factors into the decision, going 4-4 in his last eight games (six starts). Though Lively began the year pitching out of the bullpen, he has recorded 17+ outs in his six starts, which means he is likely to pitch long enough to be eligible for the win.

Cincinnati entered Monday 21-14 (.600, 14.6% ROI) against the run line at home this season, the third-best in MLB. In addition, the Reds are six games over .500 (15-9) against left-handed starters and three games under .500 (23-26) against righties, while the Rockies are an NL-worst 13-27 on the road. All of this makes the +155 odds for Lively to earn the victory worthwhile.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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