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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/6)

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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks are two of the more surprising teams this year, and each occupies a playoff spot entering the day. See how we get involved with these two upstart franchises from a player prop perspective in today’s column.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mitch Keller Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Athletics (-165) 

Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller has turned into the staff’s ace seemingly overnight, as he has gone from a pitcher that entered this season with a 12-29 overall record to one that is 7-1 and has serious aspirations of winning a Cy Young.

Per Stuff+, Keller’s slider ranks in the top ten, while his fastball is still elite but slightly lower at 16th. That is a big reason why his 11.2 K/9 rate is on pace to be his best since his first season in 2019 when he recorded a 12.2 K/9 rate through 48 innings.

Keller has struck out 8+ batters in seven straight starts, and his streak of consecutive starts with six or more strikeouts is just five behind Spencer Strider’s longest active streak of 12. The Pirates are 4-0 in Keller’s last four Tuesday starts, and he should take advantage of an Oakland Athletics team with the fourth-worst strikeout rate (25.1%) in MLB.

Rafael Devers to hit a home run vs. Guardians (+350)

Rafael Devers has been an RBI Machine, ranking third in the league with 49 RBIs. He now faces Cleveland Guardians righty Shane Bieber, who has been widely discussed as potentially being moved at the trade deadline. It might be wise for the Guardians to move him based on his seemingly diminished skills. 

In his Cy Young year of 2020, Bieber had a 41.1% strikeout rate in 77 innings. However, through 75 innings this year, Bieber’s strikeout rate is down to 16.9%, and he ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in xBA, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity.

Devers already has solid career numbers against Bieber, with two of his three hits in 11 at-bats going for home runs. He should have an advantage over Bieber, who has seen his WHIP increase for three consecutive months and is at 1.65 against left-handed batters this season. Devers’ 5.4% home run percentage is on pace to be the second-best of his career, and he is elevating the ball with more regularity, as evidenced by his 32.6% fly ball rate (his previous single season-high is 26.3%). Thus, with us expecting a big day for Devers at the plate, we are opting for maximum value by backing his odds to hit a home run instead of his hits or RBI prop.

Tommy Henry to record a win vs. Nationals (+135)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have feasted on poor teams this year, going 21-11 against teams under .500. That is a big reason they are 5-0-1 in their last six road series, and they now look to improve their record against a Washington Nationals team that is an NL-worst 12-19 at home and 11-22 against teams over .500.

One of southpaw Tommy Henry’s three quality starts this season was against the Nationals, as he held them to two runs over six innings. The team had a 6-2 lead entering the ninth inning that day but allowed five runs and squandered its chances of covering another run line. We expect a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks eighth in xFIP to do a much better job backing up Henry against the league’s 23rd-ranked offense.

The Diamondbacks lost their last road game before starting a ten-game homestand and are 8-1 against the run line (47.4% ROI) after a road loss this season. That is the second-best record in MLB, per Inside Edge. In addition, Arizona has won six of its last eight games against Washington, which has us willing to back its starting pitcher to earn the victory instead of wagering on its steeper moneyline odds.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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