Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/15)

by |

There are plenty of juicy matchups to exploit from a player prop perspective on Tuesday’s slate, as seven starting pitchers with ERAs north of 5.00 take the mound. We oppose one of those starting pitchers with a batter prop while backing two other pitchers amid hot streaks.

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Graham Ashcraft Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Guardians (-140) 

Cincinnati Reds righty Graham Ashcraft has had a roller-coaster season to this point, but we are happy to back him amid a torrid stretch where he has pitched to a 2.03 ERA over his previous seven starts. Ashcraft was atrocious over an eight-start stretch from May 7-June 24, where he had an MLB-worst 7.72 FIP and 12.82 ERA (no starting pitcher in that stretch with a minimum of 20 innings pitched had worse than a 9.28 ERA). However, if we limit Ashcraft’s numbers to his first since starts and last eight starts, he has pitched to a 1.97 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 87 innings and recorded 18+ outs 12 times.

The Cleveland Guardians rank 26th and third-worst among all AL teams in hard-hit contact since the All-Star Break and have the second-lowest wRC+ in the league. While Cleveland is a road favorite in this matchup, it has struggled away from home, going 19-32 in its last 51 road games (-15.35 units, -27% ROI). We give the Reds the edge in this one and expect Ashcraft to throw another gem.

Matt Olson to hit a home run vs. Yankees (+225)

New York Yankees righty Luis Severino is struggling so much this season (11.71 ERA over his previous seven appearances) that manager Aaron Boone has tried everything to get him right, including using an opener (Ian Hamilton) in his last start. Boone reiterated that Severino would start today, and we expect the Atlanta Braves to jump on him early, as Katie Sharp explained Severino’s inefficiency in early innings via Twitter.

Severino is the only pitcher that has allowed 18+ home runs this season to do so in fewer than 79 innings (he has pitched 63 â…” innings this year). That spells doom against a Braves lineup on pace for an MLB-record 314 home runs this season. Severino has allowed a whopping .373 OBA and ten of his 18 home runs to left-handed hitters this season, so Matt Olson has an outstanding chance to add to his MLB-best 1.044 OPS against right-handed pitching and 43 home runs and 107 RBIs overall.            

Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Phillies (-125)

Among Toronto Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi’s last eight starts, he has had three with four or fewer strikeouts and four with 7+ strikeouts. We expect this start against the Philadelphia Phillies to be one where he has a higher strikeout upside, given that the Phillies struck out 21 times while scoring one run in their last 18 innings against the Minnesota Twins and an MLB-high 32.5% of the time against left-handed pitching in road games since July 1. Additionally, four Phillies regulars have a strikeout rate of 33.3% against southpaws on the road in that span.

Kikuchi’s 24.6% K% is on pace to be the second-best of his career, in large part because his velocity on his two primary pitches (fastball and slider), which he throws a combined 71% of the time, is up 2.5 mph between the two from last season.

The Phillies rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring away from home this year, so we expect Kikuchi to have a long outing, especially since his .174 OBA with runners in scoring position is tied for third-best among all qualified starting pitchers, per Inside Edge.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App