MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/29)
Our last MLB player prop article was arguably our most successful of the season, not just because we profited +4.65 units while going 3-0, but because all three picks were never in doubt. Wilmer Flores cashed his Over 1.5 total bases and homered in the process. In addition, Tyler Glasnow easily stayed Under his earned run total by shutting out the New York Yankees, and Alex Bregman did not just hit one RBI but a game-high four.
Which three MLB player props do we like best today?
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Angels (-140)
Michael Lorenzen has made four starts with the Philadelphia Phillies. The first two were spectacular, with one no-hitter and two earned runs allowed over 17 innings. However, the organization clearly had concerns over his workload after the no-hitter, giving him eight days of rest, and it seems they had reason to be concerned.
Lorenzen has allowed ten earned runs on 16 hits in his last nine innings spanning two starts. Two starts ago against the Nationals, he generated just one swing-and-miss on a fastball, which was down 0.6 mph on average, which is concerning considering he threw it 38% of the time. His velocity was down at least 0.6 mph on all his pitches, and he induced just six whiffs on 74 pitches in all (seven whiffs on 93 pitches in his last start).
The Nationals and San Francisco Giants, two bottom-11 offenses in the league, scored 16 runs off Lorenzen and the Phillies pitching staff in his last two outings, so we expect a bounce-back from a Los Angeles Angels lineup that has cashed the team total Over in just eight of their previous 29 games.
Alex Cobb Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Reds (-105)
Expecting Cobb to go Over this projected earned runs total is sure to be a contrarian play, as his 2.25 ERA at Oracle Park is second in the majors in home ERA, only behind Cy Young frontrunner Zac Gallen. However, he is trending in the wrong direction of late, with no wins in his last eight starts and a 6.14 ERA over his previous seven.
Perhaps Cobb still feels the effects of an oblique strain that landed him on the IL in June. Over 14 starts before the injury, Cobb had excellent peripherals, with a 3.28 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA, 6.7% barrel percentage, and 22.5% strikeout rate. However, those numbers have spiked to a 3.81 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA, 8.0% barrel percentage, and 17.8% strikeout rate in the ten starts since the injury. And despite his 7.20 ERA over his last three starts, manager Gabe Kapler has still let Cobb throw 92+ pitches in all three, so it is not like he gets removed at the first sign of trouble, which increases his chances of allowing runs.
The Cincinnati Reds are the fourth-highest scoring team in the National League, and their team total Over is 34-18 in their last 52 road games (+13.55 units, 22% ROI).
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Diamondbacks (+165)
On Sunday, Freddie Freeman made Dodgers franchise history, as ESPN Stats & Info explained.
Freeman has 33 more games to hit three doubles and break Johnny Frederick's team record of 52, and he could add to that total today against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly.
Freeman is slashing .333/.429/.667 in 24 career at-bats against Kelly and is facing him for the fourth time this season. Three of Freeman's four hits in 14 at-bats have gone for extra bases (two doubles, one home run). Thus, Freeman is likely to cash this wager with one swing of the bat, and Kelly has averaged six hits allowed in his previous six road starts despite pitching to a 2.40 ERA in his last seven starts overall. Freeman is heating up with RBIs in four of his previous seven games following a season-high eight-game RBI-less drought.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.