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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/8)

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Two teams, the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks, enter the day without a win since the Major League Baseball trade deadline. However, among our three player prop wagers is a National League batter that has done plenty over the last week to put his team squarely into the playoff mix.

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Zach Eflin Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Cardinals (-175) 

The St. Louis Cardinals rank top five in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA against right-handed pitching in road games since July 1. However, given that Tampa Bay Rays righty Zach Eflin has been one of the league’s best pitchers and is enjoying a career year, we expect him to cool them off in this start.

Eflin leads the American League in wins (12) and WHIP (0.997). He also has a career-best 2.92 FIP and 119 ERA+, with a 50.9 percent ground ball rate (his ground ball rate has increased for three straight years).

When analyzing a pitcher’s chances of success against St. Louis, one must project how well they will do against the Cardinals’ best two hitters, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Eflin has passed those tests quite well, holding the two to a combined 6-for-29 with just two extra-base hits.

St. Louis’ team total Under is 33-20 in its previous 53 road games (+10.30 units, 17% ROI), and we expect Eflin to pitch well tonight before the bullpen takes over.

Jeimer Candelario Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs vs. Mets (-135)

Many pundits gave the Chicago Cubs glowing reviews over their trade deadline acquisition of Jeimer Candelario. Still, surely not many of them thought Candelario would be this good this fast in the Windy City.

Candelario entered Monday with a .571/.640/.905 slash line in six games with the Cubs. He has at least one hit in eight of his last 10 games and one RBI in 10 of 20. 

Candelario now faces New York Mets righty Carlos Carrasco, against whom he is 6-for-15 in his career. While just one of those six hits has gone for extra bases, Carrasco has recently had a lot of traffic on the basepaths against him. He has allowed 8+ hits in three consecutive starts while pitching to a 15.00 ERA in that span. 

Chicago ranks second in OBP (.367) and wOBA (.384) over the last 14 days, so Candelario should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs (and score runs) in a game with a high projected total (9.5).

Clarke Schmidt to record a win vs. White Sox (+135)

Most of the chatter surrounding the New York Yankees rotation has been about the consistency and Cy Young candidacy of Gerrit Cole, along with the struggles of Domingo German, Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodon. And seemingly lost in the shuffle is righty Clarke Schmidt, who has flown largely under the radar over the last month despite winning five of his previous six starts. But Schmidt’s reliability dates back even further, as he has pitched to a 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, with less than one home run allowed per nine innings (0.89) over his last 14 outings. And in that span, he has never allowed more than three runs, as Fireside Yankees explained on Twitter.

Schmidt’s 13-start stretch where he has allowed three or fewer runs is second only to Blake Snell’s 14, while his 18 starts allowing three or fewer runs was tied for fourth in the American League after his last appearance earlier this month. Conversely, we expect the Yankees to jump on Chicago White Sox starter Touki Toussaint, whose 4.47 xERA is worse than his actual 3.92 ERA. In addition, we know New York can draw walks at an elite rate (they walked 12 times as a team on Sunday), and Toussaint has a 15.3 percent walk rate, ranking in the first percentile.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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