MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/12)
We are less than three weeks from the end of the Major League Baseball season, and this is a thrilling time as players make their last cases for individual awards (MVP, Cy Young, etc.). However, it is also an exciting time to get a glimpse into the future and see what teams have in their farm systems, as many who are out of playoff contention like to utilize call-ups to get young players meaningful playing time.
For today’s article, we have a decent blend of young and more veteran hitters we are all bullish on that we analyze for our best MLB player props.
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gunnar Henderson To Hit a Home Run vs. Cardinals (+400)
We would be foolish not to take advantage of the decent odds for an opposing player to go yard off St. Louis Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright, who has allowed 20 home runs in 89 innings this year. To put that into perspective, he allowed 16 home runs in 191 2/3 innings throughout last season, and his 2.0 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the worst of his career by far. And while the Baltimore Orioles rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs at home, they are still in the top eight in wRC+, OPS and GB/FB ratio in that split.
Henderson is second on the Orioles with 25 home runs, and the lefty is in his much better hitting split, slashing .270/.334/.545 against right-handed pitching and .224/.314/.351 against southpaws. He has finished each of the last three months with at least six home runs. With two long balls in his previous six games, we believe he is due once again when facing one of the most forgiving pitchers to hit home runs against.
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Yankees (+135)
New York Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon has been abysmal over his last seven starts, pitching to a 6.25 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Rodon has had a brutal schedule in that stretch, facing top-five offenses four times, but there is still no excuse for his seven earned runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Detroit Tigers.
Now Rodon faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that ranks eighth in scoring overall and ninth in wRC+ in home games. The Red Sox also have an MLB-best .333 BABIP and .284 overall batting average at home, which is dangerous for Rodon, whose 20.1% strikeout percentage is down 41.9% from two years ago. Rafael Devers has just two hits in eight career at-bats against Rodon but is slashing .429/.512/.829 with seven RBIs in 35 at-bats against the Yankees this year.
Nine of Boston’s last 10 games against AL East opponents have exceeded the projected total, and the Reds Sox have cashed the Over in 20 of their last 29 games overall (+13.60 units, 43% ROI). Thus, we expect Devers to do his part in ensuring those trends continue again.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Athletics (+130)
Houston Astros slugger Kyle Tucker entered Monday slashing .300/.462/.550 over the previous seven days and was one of seven Astros hitters with an OPS higher than 1.000 in that span. Thus, Tucker, the team leader in batting average, home runs, RBIs and on-base percentage, has plenty of protection up and down the lineup, so it is not like he can get pitched around consistently.
That last point is significant when considering his career numbers against Oakland Athletics southpaw JP Sears, against whom he has three hits in seven at-bats, including two home runs and a .571 wOBA. For now, Sears has appeared to have righted the ship with just one earned run allowed in two September starts, recording the win in both. However, Sears was tagged for a 6.19 ERA in his previous three road starts. While Tucker’s .985 OPS on the road is third-best in MLB, he has not been too shabby at home either.
Tucker’s splits as a left-handed hitter are unique, as his OPS against southpaws is 120 points higher than against right-handed pitchers. We expect him to exceed this total bases prop for the fourth time in 11 games this month.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.