Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/19)

by |

The Atlanta Braves have set numerous offensive records this season, with the latest over the weekend being Matt Olson hitting a franchise-record 52 home runs.

From a further player prop perspective, San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell has a huge start today – even though his team has almost no chance to make the postseason – as he has an opportunity to add to his Cy Young Award case against the worst team in the NL, the Colorado Rockies.

Which MLB player props catch our eye today?

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Taj Bradley To Record a Win vs. Angels (+185) 

The Tampa Bay Rays missed a golden opportunity to end the weekend deadlocked with the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East after falling in 11 innings on Sunday. However, the Rays have an excellent chance to make up ground this week, as Baltimore has to deal with the Houston Astros, while the Rays should get right against a Los Angeles Angels squad that has lost five straight games (three by two or more runs). In addition, the Angels seem to have mailed in the end of the season after shutting down Shohei Ohtani with an oblique injury.

Since Ohtani last played on Sept. 3, the Angels have collectively struck out 24.6% of the time and slashed .246/.318/.428 with just a .294 BABIP. Thus, we expect a big outing from Rays righty Taj Bradley, whom we expect to win for the first time in 10 starts. And while Bradley’s last win came on June 21, he has faced a murderous schedule, with nine of his previous 10 starts coming against teams either occupying a playoff spot or are one game out.

The moneyline trends are definitely in Tampa Bay’s favor, going 50-25 at home (+11.35 units, 9% ROI), while Los Angeles is 28-50 in its last 78 (-24.65 units, -27% ROI). But Tampa Bay has also covered the run line in 53.3% of its home games, while the Angels have covered the run line in 46% of their games overall, so we are opting for better value laying the -1.5 runs.

Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 Hits vs. Braves (-125)

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has homered in his career off of Atlanta Braves righty Spencer Strider. However, he is also just 3-for-15 with a whopping eight strikeouts in that small sample size, suggesting he is not picking up Strider’s pitches well. While Schwarber has hit safely in three consecutive games, he went a combined 0-for-11 in the three games prior and slashed just .179/.303/.321 in the previous seven days entering Monday.

Many bettors will be skeptical about this play, as Schwarber has hit for a much better average (.260) over the last 30 days. Still, we expect him to go hitless against Strider and the Braves bullpen, especially since Strider is coming off a nine-strikeout performance against Philadelphia. That performance brought him to the highest strikeout total by a pitcher in his first 50 career starts since 1893, as ESPN Stats & Info explained.

Braxton Garrett Under 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Mets (-180)

We faded the New York Mets offense on Saturday when they were facing Cincinnati Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott. While Abbott labored through 3 2/3 innings, he cashed our wager of him allowing under 2.5 earned runs. Thus, we are back to fading the Mets with another southpaw on the mound, though Miami Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett enters in much better form than Abbott did.

New York has struggled against left-handed pitching all season, going 55-49 against right-handed starting pitchers and 15-31 in games started by lefties. Garrett has potentially earned a Game 1 start of a playoff series if the Marlins were to make it, as he has pitched to a 2.33 ERA in his previous seven starts, with quality starts in four of his last five and one earned run allowed in 9 â…” innings in September. 

The Mets rank in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ in road games against southpaws since Aug. 1 and are 19th or worse in BABIP and BB/K in that split. And while New York ranks sixth in HR/FB (16.7%) in that span, Garrett has not allowed a home run in seven of his last nine starts.

The Under is 48-35 in New York’s last 82 games (+16.20 units), and we expect Garrett to do his part in ensuring that trend continues tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App