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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/26)

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Last week, we saw some incredible feats from a player prop perspective.

Aaron Judge hit his 35th home run, tying the most in MLB history by a player who missed 50-plus games that season. Elsewhere, Freddie Freeman became the first Los Angeles Dodgers player with 200-plus hits since Adrian Beltre in 2004. Luis Castillo became the eighth pitcher in Seattle Mariners history with 200-plus strikeouts. Also, most notably, Ronald Acuna Jr. joined the elite 40/40 club and became the first player with 40 home runs and 60 stolen bases in a season.

A 2-1 day with over two units of profit from Saturday has us coming into a new week with plenty of momentum as we look to end the MLB regular season on a high betting note.

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hunter Greene To Record a Win vs. Guardians (+165) 

The Cincinnati Reds did not do themselves any favors over the weekend by losing two of three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They enter the day with just an 8.0% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. However, they have their most reliable starting pitcher on the mound to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. We are making a bold statement by expecting Hunter Greene to earn a victory, as he is the only Reds starting pitcher to do so in the whole month of September.

Greene enters this start with plenty of momentum after recording 14 strikeouts in his last appearance against the Minnesota Twins, the most by a Reds pitcher since 2000. He left the game after 7.0 innings with a 3-1 lead, but the bullpen promptly allowed four runs over the final two innings, and the team lost 5-3. 

We expect more from a Cincinnati bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA (5.08) and 28th in xFIP (5.47) in September. However, if there is any starting pitcher that can allow a crooked number early in games, it is Cleveland Guardians righty Lucas Giolito, who has allowed 10 home runs in his previous 28 innings. In addition, Giolito’s 32.1% ground-ball rate is headed to being the worst of his career, and his 42.9% hard-hit contact rate is the worst since his 46.5% rate when he pitched just 21 1/3 innings in 2016.

The Reds have been a highly profitable moneyline team in road games, going 39-23 in their last 62 games away from home (+25.15 units, 40% ROI). That makes Greene’s +165 odds to record a victory all the more enticing.

Braxton Garrett Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. Mets (+125)

The New York Mets have struggled against left-handed pitching all season, going 56-51 against right-handed starting pitchers and 15-34 in games started by lefties, including losing their last three. One of those losses came against Miami Marlins southpaw Braxton Garrett, who held the Mets to one unearned run on five hits in six innings while striking out seven in his last start.

Garrett has potentially earned a Game 1 start of a playoff series if the Marlins make it, as he has pitched to a minuscule 1.86 ERA in his previous seven starts, with quality starts in five of his last six and one earned run allowed in 15 2/3 innings in September. 

The Mets rank outside the top 10 in wOBA, OPS, BABIP and BB/K rate in home games against southpaws since Aug. 1. Considering New York ranks 20th in HR/FB (12.1%) in that split, the Mets will likely have to find other ways to manufacture runs against Garrett, who has not allowed a home run in eight of his last 10 starts.

Despite beginning the day one game out of the NL’s third wild card spot, FanGraphs still gives the Marlins a 55.9% chance of making the playoffs (by comparison, the Cubs are at 58.1%). We expect them to take a massive step towards nailing down their first playoff appearance in a full season for the first time since 2003. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs vs. Cubs (-155)

Chicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele likely threw away any chance of winning the Cy Young Award, as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs and 15 hits over his last nine innings. More surprising is those poor starts came against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank seventh and 12th in the National League in runs scored.

Steele’s ERA is up nearly an entire run (2.56 to 3.52) from before the All-Star Break to the second half, and he has not had his typical swing-and-miss stuff of late, generating whiffs on 19 of 82 swings over the last two starts. That is a dangerous way to make a living against an Atlanta Braves lineup whose 27-point gap in MLB-leading ISO between them and the second-place team is bigger than the gap between second and sixth place.

Roanld Acuna Jr. is slashing .321/.345/.786 over the last seven days, and his 1.131 OPS in that span leads all Braves hitters (min. five at-bats). However, Acuna Jr. is still one of four Braves hitters who ranks in the top 28 among all qualified hitters in wRC+ against lefties. So we expect traffic on the basepaths in every at-bat except when he hits leadoff in the first inning, while his teammates offer a high chance of driving him in when he reaches base. In addition, Acuna Jr. is still motivated to add to his MVP case down the stretch, while Atlanta still needs more wins to clinch home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Atlanta’s team total Over is 30-17 in its last 47 home games (+10.04 units, 18% ROI), and we expect Acuna Jr. to be a big part of its chances of cashing in this series opener.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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