MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/5)
Two consecutive profitable days with our player prop articles to end last week have us brimming with confidence entering the first full week of September. Two of our three wagers today can be considered contrarian plays, as we are fading one of the best offenses in the league and backing a player on an offense in a rough slump.
Which MLB player props do we like best today?
Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (-145)
Miami Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo has the fifth-best ERA of any left-handed starting pitcher (3.62). Things looked bleak headed down the stretch for Luzardo when he pitched to an 11.90 ERA in his first three August starts, but he has bounced back with consecutive scoreless starts while allowing just three hits over his last 12 innings. Not coincidentally, Luzardo’s strikeout rate also increased mightily in his previous two outings, totaling 15 strikeouts and CSW percentages of 31% and 29% in that span.
The Dodgers are 33-14 since the All-Star Break, but if there is any area that they are susceptible from a wins and losses perspective, it is against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is 21-20 against left-handed starting pitchers (21-20) as opposed to 31 games over .500 (63-32) against righties.
While the Dodgers’ 0.50 BB/K ratio against southpaws is second-best in the majors, Luzardo ranks in the 81st percentile of better in strikeout rate and whiff percentage, primarily because he has one of the most electric fastballs of any starting pitcher (91st percentile in fastball velocity). We are not backing Luzardo’s earned run prop, given that the Los Angeles Dodgers rank in the top four in wRC+, OPS, and ISO against left-handed pitchers. However, we do expect Luzardo to record six-plus strikeouts for the ninth time in the last 13 starts.
Michael Lorenzen Under 16.5 outs recorded vs. Padres (-115)
The Philadelphia Phillies gave starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen eight days of rest after throwing a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals on August 9. They had good reason to be concerned, given how he’s been pitching since.
Lorenzen has allowed 13 earned runs on 24 hits during his last 15 innings, spanning three starts. He generated just six swings-and-misses on non-fastballs in his previous start, which is concerning since he threw those pitches 57% of the time. Lorenzen also recorded seven whiffs on 93 pitches the start before that. And for the third consecutive start, Lorenzen’s fastball velocity is down, which makes one wonder if he is fatiguing down the stretch.
Lorenzen’s OBA is 73 points higher when facing right-handed hitters than lefties, which increases the likelihood that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. do damage and set the table at the top of the lineup. Lorenzen has recorded 18 outs just once in his last three starts, and we expect a quick hook again tonight.
Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 RBI vs. Orioles (+215)
This game’s odds are intriguing, as we fully expected the Los Angeles Angels to be bigger than +136 moneyline underdogs against the AL-best Baltimore Orioles, especially after getting swept by the Oakland Athletics over the weekend. The odds are especially confusing given how hot Dean Kremer has been for the Orioles, but perhaps oddsmakers are tipping their hand that he is due for a rough outing.
Kremer has pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last seven starts and had four consecutive quality starts to end August. However, his worst of those starts came on the road, where his OBA on the season is 24 points higher.
Kremer has a 2.03 HR/9 rate against left-handed hitters and a much lower 1.24 HR/9 rate against righties. However, we are not backing Shohei Ohtani as teams are pitching to him less lately, and are encouraged by the fact that Mickey Moniak ended a four-game RBI drought. Moniak has a .879 OPS against right-handed pitchers versus a .448 OPS against southpaws, and we are backing him to do his part in helping the Angels team total Over cash (it was 11-23 in the previous 34 games entering Monday, -16.10 units, -39% ROI).
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.