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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/5)

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I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July!

Now we’re back to regularly scheduled programming. We’ve got a full slate of MLB games on the horizon, including one day game between the Rockies and Astros. I’ll be looking at the latter portion of the slate, but we’ll have baseball on throughout the day, which is exciting.

Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s slate of games.

Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dominic Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

Graham Ashcraft will take the hill for the Reds tonight. He’s been fine against righties as a right-handed pitcher. But he’s been smoked against lefties. His last 30 lefties have slugged a .400 ISO and wOBA of .541. He’s also walked 10% of lefties and has only struck out 13.3% in the last month.

Meanwhile, Dominic Smith has hit a .220 ISO and wOBA of .334 against righties. Even more importantly, he’s struck out just 8.3% of the time against righties in the last month. Smith will put the ball in play against Ashcraft. With Ashcraft allowing 61.9% of hard contact against lefties in the previous month, Smith’s contact will likely be loud.

Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)

Cal Quantrill just returned to the mound for the Guardians last week. He struggled against lefties to start the season and continued to get worked against lefties after returning.

He’s allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .387 to 125 lefties this season. Against his last nine lefties, he’s allowed a .286 ISO and wOBA of .630. He couldn’t get a single ground ball against nine lefties and allowed 50% of line drives instead.

He’ll have to face Matt Olson in the Braves lineup tonight. The Braves are red hot, and Olson is one of the reasons why. Olson has slugged a .434 ISO and wOBA of .463 against his last 91 righties faced. He’s also minimized strikeouts to under 21%. Olson should get a couple of at-bats against Quantrill.

Brandon Belt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Brandon Belt is just what the Blue Jays needed. The Blue Jays have always been right-handed heavy and never had great matchups against right-handed pitchers. Belt and Daulton Varsho have helped the Blue Jays balance out their lineup.

Belt has knocked a .317 ISO and wOBA of .358 for the Blue Jays in the last month against righties. He has rarely hit ground balls and has slugged over 59% of line drives and fly balls with 54.5% of hard contact against righties.

He’ll face Lance Lynn of the White Sox. Lynn has earned high strikeouts and has given up low walks in the last month. But he’s still allowing a .279 ISO and wOBA of .415 to his previous 72 lefties. On the season, lefties have hit a .309 ISO and wOBA of .449 against Lynn. Belt has a lot of potential tonight.

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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