Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (10/5)
College football usually rules Saturdays in the fall, but Major League Baseball should be taking plenty of attention away from what is happening on the gridiron, as it has a loaded four-game slate to kick off the Division Series action.
Three of the four series pit division rivals against one another, which allows for plenty of data to dissect from a player prop perspective. And what should make the action even more exciting on the field is the fact the Tigers and Guardians, as well as the Mets and Phillies, have never met before in the postseason until now.
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks for Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 RBI (+255)
Kerry Carpenter went 1-for-6 in two Wild Card games, but he still entered the playoffs as one of the hottest hitters in the Tigers’ lineup.
In his last three healthy months, which spanned May, August, and September, because of injuries, Carpenter produced a .903 OPS or better in each month. And over the last 15 days, Carpenter slashed .286/.355/.643, with four of his eight hits going for extra bases.
Carpenter is 2-for-4 with a home run against Tanner Bibee, which makes his odds of driving in at least one run carry great value.
The Tigers were 1-3 in the four games they faced Bibee, but three of those games were decided by one run. In addition, Cleveland's rotation finished tied for 23rd in ERA. Detroit has not lost more than two games in a row since August 11. Its offense ranked ninth or better in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA, and second in BABIP (.318) since then. I expect the feisty Tigers to do enough offensively to scratch some runs across, with Carpenter being at the center of that offensive success.
Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-105)
The Phillies send one of the best postseason pitchers in recent memory to the mound for Game 1 of their Division Series. Zack Wheeler has pitched to a 2.42 ERA, a minuscule 0.726 WHIP and has recorded a 10.4 K/9 rate or better in four of his last five postseason series.
Wheeler has made a franchise record 11 consecutive starts with six or more innings pitched and two earned runs or fewer allowed. While that forced me to look long and hard at his over 17.5 outs recorded prop, especially with him well-rested for this start, I could not justify the juice as high as -175 to back the over.
Wheeler has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of those historic 11 starts. While the Mets tagged him for two earned runs over seven innings in a win on September 22, Wheeler still generated a 28% CSW% and his velocity was up 0.6 or more miles per hour (MPH) on all of his pitches compared to his season average.
Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+120)
Earlier this week all sportsbooks were in unison with -175 odds for Gerrit Cole to allow two or fewer earned runs. However, while I still would have played that prop despite those steep odds, I am happy to get a much better return with the +120 odds on the under 1.5 now offered at DraftKings Sportsbook, as Cole has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his previous nine starts.
Cole has allowed current Royals hitters a combined .236/.259/.347 slash line. And he has neutralized Kansas City's two biggest threats, as Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are a combined 3-for-22 against him, with one home run.
Cole is in midseason form after throwing just 95 innings this year. He should be locked and loaded to start this postseason strong, just as he has with a 6-0 record and 1.71 ERA in seven ALDS starts in his career.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.