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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/20)

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Major League Baseball’s biggest competition from a sports betting perspective this weekend comes from the start of the NBA playoffs, but there is plenty of action to cash in on with regards to player props, as a loaded 16-game MLB slate is on tap for Saturday thanks to the doubleheader between the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs.

We caught fire with Thursday’s player props article, as Adolis Garcia went over his projected total bases prop by hitting a home run (one of two hits on the day) and Logan Webb allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings.

Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Saturday.

    Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 runs (-115)

    Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz entered the weekend slashing just .225/.276/.313, but largely because of hitting at the top of the lineup, he still was tied for the team lead with 10 runs scored. Diaz entered Friday with multiple hits in back-to-back games and at least one run scored in three of the last five. He is one of many Rays hitters who have had success against New York Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes, as he is 6-for-21 with a .890 OPS against him, with four of those six hits going for extra bases. In total, Rays hitters are slashing .239/.292./.582 in 67 combined at-bats against Cortes, with six home runs and a low 19.4% strikeout rate (compared to Cortes’ 25.2% career strikeout rate).

    Cortes ranks in the ninth percentile in ground ball rate, which is a dangerous way to make a living in a small park like Yankee Stadium. And we have confidence in Diaz scoring at least one run in this matchup, as he is in his better hitting split against a southpaw. Over his career, Diaz is slashing .302/.390/.487 against left-handed pitching, and has a .281/.371/.409 slash line against righties.

    Zack Wheeler to record a win (-155) 

    Zack Wheeler still has the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award (+600 at DraftKings), despite starting the year 0-3. That is because Wheeler has pitched to a respectable 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, while leading the team with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Wheeler's 2.53 FIP ranks seventh among all qualified NL starting pitchers, and he is in a great position to earn his first win against a Chicago White Sox team that was on pace to win just 27 games this season entering the weekend. Chicago ranks dead-last in nearly every offensive category, including on-base percentage, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. 

    Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 outs recorded (-125) 

    Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi is an innings eater, with two of his four starts being quality starts. He is second among all Rangers starting pitchers in WAR (0.6) and has pitched to an outstanding 1.01 WHIP despite three of his four starts coming against division contenders (Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros). We are giving him a pass for a poor outing in his last start (five earned runs over six innings against Houston), as he was once again victimized by Jose Altuve, who hit two home runs off him for the third time in the same game in his career.

    Eovaldi faces a somewhat compromised Braves lineup, who is missing Ozzie Albies (out with a fractured big toe). Albies’ absence should not be understated, as he was batting .317 and is second on the team with 14 RBIs. In addition, Ronald Acuna has not yet shown his MVP caliber just yet, as he is striking out one of every four at-bats (25%). This is a contrarian play, as Atlanta entered Friday cashing its team total Over in 36 of its last 55 home games (+13.64 units/21% ROI), but we expect Eovaldi to be economical with his pitches, and he has averaged a team-high 93.3 pitches per start. He also benefits from getting five days of rest, on which he has a .586 winning percentage and 3.87 ERA in his career.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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