MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/25)
It will be difficult for any Major League Baseball hitter to top the run that San Diego Padres slugger Luis Arraez is on, as he had multiple hits in eight consecutive games entering Friday. Elsewhere, Juan Soto had two multi-home run games this week, Max Fried pitched his second complete game of the season, and Cole Ragans set a new career high with 12 strikeouts in a start against the Detroit Tigers.
Who do we have our eyes on from a player prop perspective this weekend?
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+135)
Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is one of three hitters on the team with at least four RBIs over the last seven days entering Friday, and his 13 total bases are second in that span only to the red-hot Marcell Ozuna. While Ozuna deserved a long look for his RBI props, Olson’s price provides much better value in comparison, especially with how much success the lineup as a whole figures to have against Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller.
The Braves have slashed a combined .378/.399/.601 in 82 combined at-bats against Keller, with four of their nine extra-base hits going for home runs. Olson’s 41.4% strikeout rate over the previous seven days entering Friday is concerning, but Keller is not known for strikeouts, ranking in the 40th percentile in strikeout rate, and 26th percentile in whiff rate. Olson’s .448 slugging percentage over the last week is second on the team (min. 14 at-bats), and he has driven in at least one run in four of the last 10 games. Olson has raised his OPS from a season-low .664 on May 11 to .716 currently, and we expect him to be a big part of Atlanta’s offensive success today.
Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 earned runs (-125)
The New York Yankees played 11 games from May 12 up to their series opener against the San Diego Padres on Friday, and their starting pitching was a big reason they went 9-2 in that span. Yankees starters went 9-1 with a 0.92 ERA in that stretch, and to put that into perspective, their difference between their ERA and the second-best team’s ERA in that span was bigger than the difference between the second and ninth-best team. Yankees starters also ranked sixth in K/9 rate, and when opponents did put the ball in play, they had a collective .210 BABIP, by far the lowest in the league.
Marcus Stroman looks to continue that torrid stretch of Yankee pitching, and he has allowed just one earned run in his last 13 1/3 innings, while allowing a .111 BABIP in that span, which is important because of his relatively low 5.40 K/9 rate. Not only has Stroman been hot recently, he also has had tremendous success against current Padres hitters, holding them to a combined .217/.268/.362 slash line with a 21.7% strikeout rate in 83 at-bats.
Jordan Montgomery to record a win (+140)
The Miami Marlins are on pace for 106 losses, and despite them coming off their best week of the season where they won series against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets (which including three consecutive shutouts), they are downright pathetic against left-handed starting pitchers, winning just one of their 18 games when a lefty has started. Thus, backing Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery to earn the victory in this start is an excellent way to get around the team’s steep moneyline odds.
Montgomery has won two of his six starts, but the team is 4-2 in his outings, and has won three straight (all by two or fewer runs). We expect him to dominate a Marlins lineup that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and slugging against southpaws, and 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
Arizona should have little difficulty getting out to an early lead in this game, as Miami was 8-20 in the first five innings moneyline over its last 28 games entering Friday (-8.90 units/-28% ROI), and the Diamondbacks had profited bettors +5.55 units and had a 9% ROI in that split over their last 50 games.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.