Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (8/10)
Thursday was another profitable day for me from an MLB Player Prop Bet perspective, as Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slugged a solo home run and cashed +210 odds, allowing us to salvage a 1-1 day. The lone loss from Thursday was not cashing in on Elly De La Cruz to record an RBI (the bet had +175 odds) as he did not come through with one of the team’s 10 RBIs even though he had three hits in the game.
With another loaded 16-game MLB slate on tap for Saturday, there are plenty of player prop wagers to choose from, and I have identified the top three that I am most confident in.
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spencer Arrighetti Under 2.5 earned runs (-105)
Fading the Boston Red Sox offense has not been a prosperous endeavor of late. Over the last 30 days, Boston’s offense ranks second in the majors in wRC+ and in the top two in all three slash line categories (.295/.355/.524 slash line) while mashing the second-most home runs in the AL (38) in that span. But this line is not taking into account how well Arrighetti has pitched of late, as he is coming off a quality start with 12 strikeouts in his last appearance. Arrighetti induced 20 whiffs and a 39% CSW% in his 100-pitch outing, and his cutter and curveball were especially effective, generating a 48% CSW% between them.
Six of Boston's previous seven home games have seen 10-plus runs scored (four of those had 12-plus runs scored), and Arrighetti is the only member of the Astros rotation with a negative WAR rating (-0.2) while sporting the worst WHIP (1.52) of the bunch. While those would seem like reasons to back the Over on his earned runs prop, as well as the Red Sox cashing their team total Over in 31 of their last 46 games entering Friday (+13.30 units/24% ROI), we are buying Arrighetti’s turnaround, and also hoping that manager Joe Espada will yank him early if things start to go south.
Matt Waldron to record a win (+120)
San Diego Padres righty Matt Waldron has recorded wins in two of his previous three starts (the Padres are 3-0 in that span) and one of his seven victories on the season came when he shut out the Miami Marlins over seven innings on May 28, while walking none and striking out eight. Since then, Miami has traded the likes of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz, sent Nick Gordon to the minors, and placed Nick Fortes on the IL, making its lineup a shell of what it trotted out against Waldron in the first half of the season.
The Padres are an MLB-best 15-3 since the All-Star Break, and Waldron has led San Diego to a 5-1 record in his last six starts against teams currently under .500. In the lone loss, Waldron earned a no-decision after limiting the Los Angeles Angels to one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings. Thus, backing Waldron to earn the victory is a great way to back a team with MLB’s longest active winning streak (six games) and to mitigate the relatively steep -175 moneyline odds.
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 RBIs (+145)
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians continue their intense AL Central battle on Saturday, and if the Twins end up catching and passing the Guardians en route to the AL Central division title, it will be because the offense carries them and Cleveland's rotation continues to falter. Righty Gavin Williams is a prime example of the underperforming starting pitchers that the Guardians have been trotting out regularly of late, and he does not exude the most confidence amid a heated division race with one quality start in seven appearances. Thus, we scoured through the days of which Twins hitters to see who has thrived against right-handed pitchers, and Royce Lewis catches our eye.
Lewis has a .982 OPS against right-handed batters this season, and 10 of his 14 home runs have come in that split. Granted, Williams has done well to keep the ball in the yard, as he has allowed just one home run in 63 at-bats to right-handed batters this season. But Lewis offense finds himself in at-bats with runners in scoring position, as evidenced by the fact he has at least one RBI in six of the previous eight games. That makes him a great value play to drive in at least one run tonight.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.