MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)
For the first time since 2015, a team has won consecutive postseason games when trailing in the seventh inning or later. The Arizona Diamondbacks accomplished that feat yesterday, as they rallied from a 5-3 eighth-inning deficit against the Philadelphia Phillies on the backs of Alek Thomas’s game-tying two-run home run and a walk-off single by Gabriel Moreno (its second consecutive win via walk-off).
This sets up an all-important Game 5 today, as the winner of Game 5 in a best-of-seven series when the series is tied 2-2 goes on to win the series 71% of the time.
What player props catch our eye for this pivotal Game 5 between the Phillies and Diamondbacks?
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Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ketel Marte Under 0.5 hits vs. Phillies (+175)
Backing Ketel Marte to go hitless in any game in the regular season typically would not be seen as egregious. But given the start to his postseason career, one can say with certainty that this is a contrarian play.
Entering yesterday’s Game 4, Marte had hit for a .385 average, four doubles, three home runs, and seven RBI in his postseason career while hitting safely in all 12 games. After yesterday’s 2-for-4 performance, Marte’s 13 straight games with a hit to start a postseason career has him tied with Greg Luzinski for the second-most all-time.
If any pitcher can hold Marte hitless, it is Zack Wheeler, whose career postseason numbers are historic.
Marte went 0-for-3 in Game 1 against Wheeler, with two strikeouts and a fly-out to centerfield (he did not pick up a hit until the eighth inning when facing Jose Alvarado). Given Wheeler’s postseason dominance, we can overlook that Marte has slashed .400/.500/.800 in 10 regular-season at-bats against the Phillies righty.
Zac Gallen Over outs 15.5 outs recorded vs. Phillies (-155)
Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen was doomed from the first five pitches in his Game 1 start, as Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each took him deep for solo home runs in that span, marking the first time in Phillies postseason history they hit two home runs in the first inning. In three career games at Citizens Bank Park, Gallen has thrown just 12 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA and has allowed a .278/.339/.519 slash line. The good news is that this is a home start, and Gallen’s numbers are light-years better at Chase Field than on the road this year.
In the regular season, Gallen pitched to a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 home starts versus a 4.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 18 road starts. His different GO/AO rates are even more eye-popping, with a 1.23 ratio at home and a 0.74 ratio on the road. If Diamondbacks pitchers have learned anything when watching Philadelphia’s hitters this postseason, it is not to let them elevate the baseball.
The Diamondbacks used eight relievers in yesterday’s bullpen game, and Gallen will likely not be available on two days’ rest for a possible Game 7. Thus, look for Gallen to empty the clip tonight and for him to be allowed to throw as many pitches as possible. Philadelphia has averaged just over three runs in its last four road games, so Gallen should get into a nice rhythm in this start.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.