MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (10/6)
The Major League Playoffs are in full swing and Sunday features Game 2 of both NLDS series. The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets, while the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres.
Here are some player props I am looking at for Sunday's NLDS games.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All wagers are one unit)
Jose Iglesias OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-139 at BetMGM)
Jose Iglesias was a major catalyst for the New York Mets during their run to the postseason. Iglesias ended the regular season with a 22-game hitting streak. Included in that streak were two games started by Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez will be starting Game 2 for the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday.
Iglesias saw Sanchez very well in those two recent meetings. The Mets' utilityman went 3-for-6 with a double and a home run versus Sanchez in those games. He has also crushed left-handed pitching all season long.
Iglesias hit .402 and slugged .543 against lefties during the regular season. He also only walked four times in over 100 plate appearances. There is very little chance for a walk to disrupt this prop, especially since Iglesias is a contact hitter and Sanchez pitches to contact,
I think Iglesias is extremely likely to get a hit against Sanchez on Sunday. The Mets will probably hit Iglesias either second or fifth. Either lineup spot is a good one to either score or drive in a run. Because of that, I am taking the over on Iglesias' Hits + Runs + RBI player prop.
Christopher Sanchez UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-150 at DraftKings)
Phillies manager Rob Thomson left himself open for criticism by tabbing Sanchez as the team's Game 2 starter over longtime ace Aaron Nola.
I understand the reasoning, as Sanchez pitched very well against the Mets, especially in two September starts. However, with the Phillies having lost Game 1, I wonder how strong Thomson's conviction will remain, especially if the young left-hander gets into early trouble.
In a shortened series, previous norms regarding innings and pitch count go out the window. The Phillies can ill afford to fall behind 2-0 in a five-game series, especially at home. Sanchez has pitched well this season but has not pitched in 10 days. If he comes out flat or struggles with command early, Thomson may get the bullpen going much earlier than usual.
And even though Sanchez held New York to three runs in 12 innings across two September starts, some Mets hitters have fared well. In particular, most of the top of the lineup has had relative success against Sanchez.
The combination of Francisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias, and Brandon Nimmo is 10-for-28 lifetime versus Sanchez. This trio may make up the front third of Sunday's lineup. Starling Marte and J.D. Martinez have also combined to go 6-for-18 with four extra-base hits against the left-hander.
As good as Sanchez has been, I just think there are too many things that can go wrong when it comes to expecting him to go deep into this ballgame. Therefore, I am taking the Under on his outs recorded prop on Sunday.
Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-139 at BetMGM)
Luis Arraez has cleared his Hits + Runs + RBI line in all three playoff games so far. He has even done so twice in the first inning. I look for him to do so again on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Jack Flaherty.
In addition to his many accolades, Arraez is a road warrior. In 73 regular-season games on the road this season, he had a total of 185 hits, runs, and RBI. His numbers on the road were even better against right-handed pitchers.
Arraez hit .387 versus righties in road games during the regular season. Even better for this prop is that his average came with a minuscule 3.7-percent walk rate. Overall, Arraez recorded a hit in 36.9 percent of his plate appearances when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road.
He also has had success versus Flaherty, going 3-for-7 lifetime against the Dodgers' right-hander. I expect Arraez to get at least one hit in this game and I expect that to result in either a run scored or driven in against Flaherty, who has struggled of late.
Flaherty has given up 10 earned runs across just 14 innings over his last three starts. Given his struggles and Arraez's exploits, I am betting on the three-time batting champion in this matchup.
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