MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/14)
Another Sunday slate of Major League Baseball action means plenty of player props to pore through. Keep in mind that many teams are traveling after Sunday's games, so lineups may look a bit different than normal.
Here are a few of my favorite MLB Player Props for Sunday, April 14.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Tyler Anderson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
I might lean towards the Over here if this were almost any other MLB pitcher. Boston leads the league in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. They are potentially missing their best hitter, Rafael Devers, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Boston will likely stack the lineup with low-contact hitters like Bobby Dalbec and Connor Wong. However, I cannot get behind Tyler Anderson generating enough strikeouts to beat this number.
Anderson pitched beautifully in his first two starts this year. He has thrown 14 scoreless innings, allowing just eight hits in the process. However, as great as he looked, he only had eight strikeouts in those 14 innings. Anderson is simply not a high-strikeout pitcher at this stage of his career.
His year-to-date strikeout rate is just 15.7%, and he hasn't had a K-rate above 20% since 2019. Anderson has struck out six or more hitters in just eight of 27 starts dating back to last season, including three times in his last 13 starts. Given his track record, I am comfortable taking the Under here despite what appears to be a favorable matchup.
Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jack Flaherty has a solid 23.5% strikeout rate through two starts this season. That is right in line with last year's 22.8% rate. That should bode well on Sunday when Flaherty faces the Minnesota Twins.
Minnesota is tied for third in Major League Baseball with a 28.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Flaherty does not have much history versus Minnesota, but he has recorded seven strikeouts in 22 career plate appearances when facing Twins hitters. He has faced 23 and 28 batters in his first two starts this year. To that end, some underlying factors make me like this player prop even more.
Flaherty has not pitched since last Sunday, so he is fully rested. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Twins played a doubleheader on Saturday, meaning Flaherty may be asked to pitch longer than usual. Every Detroit bullpen arm has pitched at least once since Friday night.
The Twins swept Saturday's bill, so Minnesota may rest one or two of their regular hitters. Even if they go with their regular lineup, the Twins will be playing a minimum of four right-handed hitters on Sunday. Thus far in 2024, Flaherty has struck out nine of 27 righty hitters while allowing just four hits.
Unlike my last bet, I am looking to take advantage of a favorable matchup for strikeouts, taking Flaherty to record at least six punchouts on Sunday against the Minnesota Twins.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
I will trust some good old-fashioned head-to-head history for my third and final MLB player prop for Sunday's action. It is quite rare to see one player own another in the fashion that Yordan Alvarez has owned Nathan Eovaldi over the years.
In their lifetime matchups, Alvarez is 11-for-15 versus Eovaldi, including three doubles and two home runs. That is good for a .733 batting average and 1.333 slugging percentage.
Eovaldi has walked Alvarez on four occasions, which can be an issue for total base props. However, Eovaldi is notorious for having excellent control. In 89 starts since 2020, the veteran has walked just 113 hitters.
If you are worried about the prospect of a walk, Alvarez is +115 to record at least one base on balls. He is also -120 to score a run. But given that his total base prop is at even money, that is my preferred method of exploiting the history between Alvarez and Eovaldi on Sunday.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: