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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/7)

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All 30 Major League Baseball teams are in action on Sunday. That gives us plenty of opportunities to find some MLB Player Props to target. Below are three of my favorites. 

Please keep in mind Sunday lineups are not always the most potent, which could impact the landscape once lineups are posted. Having said that, I am confident we will end the week on a high note with the player props featured below. 

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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook)

Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+100 at DraftKings)

The Arizona Diamondbacks may have lost three straight games heading into Sunday but don't blame Ketel Marte. The switch-hitting second baseman homered in all three, including two leadoff homers. Overall, he has scored a run in 8-of-9 games this season. 

I like him to continue his hot start on Sunday. Marte reached base safely on 38.2% of plate appearances last year when batting right-handed. And he has reached base safely in 10-of-21 trips to the plate in 2024 when facing a lefty. Since the beginning of last season, Marte has struck out on just 11.8% of plate appearances versus left-handers. 

Marte is only 1-for-9 lifetime against Sunday's starter for Atlanta, Chris Sale. However, most of those meetings took place when Sale was dominating for the Chicago White Sox nearly a decade ago. Sale is not quite as prolific these days, while Marte has developed into a potent hitter.  

If Marte can reach base, I like the odds of him scoring a run. Arizona is third in the Majors in wRC+ versus left-handers. Marte has a lot to do with that, of course. But Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel and Christian Walker are no slouches. I expect one of them to drive Marte across the plate on Sunday.  

MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)

MacKenzie Gore takes the hill for the Washington Nationals as they try to salvage the series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies. Gore has yet to exceed this number in four career starts against the Phillies, averaging 4.5 strikeouts per start. Philadelphia hit him hard during these meetings. In 73 career at-bats, Phillies hitters have a .953 OPS when facing Washington's left-hander. 

Gore's strikeout rate in these contests is decent at 23.4%. But it feels like asking a lot to expect at least seven strikeouts given the struggles he has had against this club. I do not think it hurts that Alfonso Marquez will be behind the plate for this game either. Marquez is historically one of the more hitter-friendly umpires in the league. 

The only potential caveat is that the Phillies travel to St. Louis following this game. They may rest a couple of their regular hitters. I would not be shocked to see sportsbooks post the under at a better price if Philadelphia rests some players. However, all other books already have this at -140 or higher, so jumping on the FanDuel price here is the way to go. Assuming minimal lineup shenanigans, I would be fine playing this up to -150. If you are so inclined, you can combine under 6.5 strikeouts with a no win prop on Caesars. This parlay is priced at -116. However, I would stick to the strikeouts if you can get it at -128 or close to it. 

 Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-142 at Caesars)

This player prop is right around the price point at which I have to feel very confident about playing it. And this is one of those times. 

Yandy Diaz should once again lead off for Tampa Bay as they wrap up their series in Colorado. The Rays will face Dakota Hudson, who is hardly a pitcher to be feared. Hudson has a career K-BB rate of 4.9%. He has allowed right-handed hitters to reach base at a .346 clip since 2022. And this was before he decided to call Coors Field home. 

Hudson primarily attacks righties with a sinker/slider combination. Diaz struggled a bit with sliders up until last season but he seems to have fixed that hole in his game. He hit .326 with a .303 expected batting average on sliders last season and is 2-for-7 against sliders so far this year. Diaz has always hammered sinkers. Last year he hit .319 on sinkers, his worst batting average versus sinkers since 2019. 

I don't mind taking a look at total bases props, as well as hits+runs+RBIs given the likelihood of success Diaz should have today. However, there is a decent chance Diaz draws at least one base on balls in this game. Diaz has a healthy 11.7% career walk rate versus righties, while Hudson allows a free pass on 8.6% of plate appearances to right-handers in his career. Therefore, betting on Diaz to score a run on Sunday is the safer option. 

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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