MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (5/19)
Sunday gives us a great chance to finish the week strong. There are several matchups I am looking to exploit, including a couple of suspect starting pitchers and a weak offense. Finding the right player props is a great way to take advantage of these mismatches.
Here are a few of my favorite picks for Sunday, May 19’s slate.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Check out a few of our favorite MLB player prop bet picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball games.
Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in the Major League in no small part due to the contributions of Bryson Stott. The third-year pro is having a breakout season and has been on fire recently. Stott has recorded at least two Hits + Runs + RBI in 10 straight games and 12 of 13 overall. I expect him to keep it going on Sunday.
In those 13 games, Stott has reached base an incredible 31 times. He has recorded 16 hits while scoring in 10 of those 13 games and driving in at least one run in eight. He should hit no lower than fifth in the Phillies lineup and would likely be bumped up if the team gives catcher J.T. Realmuto the day off.
Stott and the Phillies face Trevor Williams on Sunday. Williams has been a revelation for Washington this year, but this feels like a game where he could turn back into the proverbial pumpkin.
The Phillies enter this matchup in good form offensively. They are fifth in baseball with a 112 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. That includes ranking fifth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percentage. Philadelphia has also owned Williams throughout his career.
Their expected starting lineup (including Realmuto) has hit .301 with 12 home runs and a 1.043 OPS in 133 lifetime at-bats against Williams. They have also drawn 21 walks while striking out just 21 times versus the veteran right-hander. There should be no shortage of baserunners for the Phillies on Sunday.
I trust Stott and the Phillies’ offense more than I am willing to trust Williams in this spot. I am betting on Bryson Stott to go over his Hits + Runs + RBI line on Sunday.
Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-142 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Carlos Rodon has faced some tough competition of late. And more often than not, he has come out the other side with a quality performance.
His last four starts have come against Milwaukee, Baltimore, Houston and Minnesota. All four teams rank in the top nine in MLB in wRC+ in that period. Yet, Rodon has earned three wins in those four starts while allowing two or fewer earned runs in all three victories.
Rodon has now held opponents below three earned runs in seven of his nine starts, including all three at Yankee Stadium. He gets arguably his easiest test of the season on Sunday when the Yankees host the Chicago White Sox.
While Rodon’s recent opponents have hit lefties hard, the White Sox cannot make the same claim. Even since Eloy Jimenez returned and Tommy Pham was called up, the team has not handled southpaws.
Since April 26, the White Sox have the second-lowest wRC+ (63) when facing a left-handed pitcher. They have the lowest on-base percentage and are near the bottom in most significant offensive categories in that split. Rodon should have his way with this lineup.
Rodon has also enjoyed success when facing White Sox hitters throughout his career. Current Chicago hitters are just 7-for-46 with 15 strikeouts when facing Rodon. I am banking on these trends continuing on Sunday, so I like Rodon to allow fewer than three earned runs in this matchup.
Blake Sabol Under 0.5 Strikeouts (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
We round up our MLB Player Prop Bets for Sunday with a fun little sweat. I am taking Blake Sabol to not strike out against Dakota Hudson and the Colorado Rockies.
Sabol has been solid at the plate since returning to the Big Leagues two weeks ago. He strikes out at about the league-average rate on the season but has made solid contact lately. In his last five starts, Sabol has struck only twice in 20 plate appearances.
Hudson has the third-lowest strikeout rate (12.5%) among 135 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings. He faced the Giants two starts ago and struck out just two of 20 hitters. Sabol saw Hudson rather well in that game, drawing a walk and then stroking a single. Sabol should face Hudson twice and then get one or two plate appearances against the Rockies’ bullpen.
In the game Hudson pitched, Nick Mears struck Sabol out in his final plate appearance. However, Mears will not be available after throwing 42 pitches on Saturday. Colorado’s bullpen has the lowest strikeout rate in the Major Leagues. Mears and Justin Lawrence (28 pitches on Saturday) are the only Rockies relievers with a strikeout rate above 20% this season.
San Francisco has also pinch-hit for Sabol on occasion when a left-handed pitcher enters the game. The only lefty in Colorado’s bullpen is Jalen Beeks, so this is unlikely to occur on Sunday. But it does give us an additional out if the game is close in the later innings.
Ultimately, Sabol will figure out a way to keep the bat on the ball. Given the price, I am betting on him to avoid punching out on Sunday.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: