MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (6/2)
The calendar has flipped to June and another week of MLB action is coming to an end. There are several intriguing matchups on Sunday's slate, which provide us with plenty of opportunities in the player prop market.
Here are three of my favorite MLB player props for Sunday's games, along with some pricing notes.
Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Quinn Priester UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are recalling Quinn Priester from the minors for Sunday's series finale to face the Toronto Blue Jays. Priester has very much looked like a Quad-A pitcher in terms of his strikeout rate. While he has struck out nearly 25 percent of hitters during parts of five minor league seasons, that has not translated to the Majors as of yet.
In 77 career Major League innings, Priester has a 14.8 percent strikeout rate, which includes a 13.8 percent rate in 27 innings this season. Priester has fanned five or more hitters three times in 13 career MLB starts, including twice in five starts this year. Priester's matchup on Sunday is not a favorable one when it comes to strikeouts.
Toronto has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB over the past 30 days when facing right-handed pitching, at 17.5 percent. That rate has been even lower (16.1 percent) over the last seven days.
Luis L. Ortiz was the only Pirates reliever who pitched on Saturday, and the team has Monday off. I do not expect this to be a bullpen game by any means, but Pittsburgh can very easily go to the pen if Priester gets into early trouble. Between the matchup and Priester's inability to strike out Major League hitters, I like him to go Under his prop for strikeouts on Sunday.
As of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook is the only one to list this player prop. That means you may be able to find a better price by the time this article is published. I am a bit surprised they listed this at 4.5 and not 3.5 based on the data, so I'll take my chances at this price.
Freddy Peralta To Record a Win (-140 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
Sunday's matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox is, on paper, one of the largest mismatches we have seen all season.
The Brewers have ace Freddy Peralta on the mound as their starting pitcher. Peralta has the third-highest strikeout rate among 82 qualified starters and also has solid peripheral stats and underlying metrics. Nick Nastrini, meanwhile, has been downright awful in four starts for the White Sox.
Nastrini has lost all four starts this year while posting a 9.92 ERA, 7.89 xERA, and 7.15 xFIP. He has walked more batters than he has struck out, and he has served up four home runs in just 16.1 innings pitched. These teams are also going in opposite directions from an offensive standpoint.
Over the past 30 days, Milwaukee has a 112 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. That is the sixth-highest mark in MLB during that timeframe. The White Sox are dead last in that split, posting a team wRC+ of just 73.
All of these numbers have led to Milwaukee being a -275 favorite in this game. Their F5 Money Line is as high as -312 in some places. Betting on Peralta to get the win is a great way to invest in the Brewers while essentially cutting that price in half. This is a game that Milwaukee should lead throughout, so I like Peralta to get his fourth win of the season on Sunday.
ESPNBet usually has pretty good pricing in this market, but they have not posted this prop yet, and I do not expect them to beat Bet365's current price of -140. I would rather play it at -140 than hope for a better price later on. DraftKings posted this at -145 overnight, while Caesars has it at -151.
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
My final MLB player prop for Sunday is playing Paul Goldschmidt's total bases. Goldschmidt has not had the type of season we have come to expect from him over the years. However, there are a couple of factors in his favor on Sunday night.
First is that Goldy comes into this game hitting the ball with some authority of late. Over his past 17 games, the veteran first baseman has recorded 10 extra-base hits. That has helped him to register at least two total bases in 11 of those 17 games. Perhaps more importantly, he also has excellent career numbers against Sunday night's starter for the Phillies, Taijuan Walker.
Goldschmidt is 5-for-10 lifetime versus Walker, with four of the five hits going for extra bases. Although Goldschmidt has struggled overall this season in comparison to his career numbers, the same must be said of Walker as well.
There are 161 Major League pitchers with at least 30 innings under their belt this year. Among them, Walker ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in HR/9 (1.65), BABIP (.343), xERA (6.19), and xFIP (4.99).
Ranger Suarez only pitched two innings for Philadelphia on Saturday before leaving due to injury. That forced the bullpen to pitch seven innings, which should increase the odds of Walker remaining in Sunday's game long enough to face Goldschmidt three times. That should give Goldschmidt ample opportunity to record at least two total bases in this game.
FanDuel’s Total Base pricing is usually pretty poor in comparison to other sportsbooks. That means there is a decent chance another book posts this at an even better price than +110 once they release their remaining player props.