Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (7/21)
We are back from the All-Star break and Sunday features a full slate of MLB action! With 15 games on the slate, there are plenty of matchups to dissect and MLB player props to choose from. So let’s get right to it!
Here are three of my favorite MLB player prop bets for Sunday’s games.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Marcus Stroman UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Marcus Stroman gets the ball for the New York Yankees on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays. I am playing the Under on his 4.5-Strikeout prop in this matchup.
Stroman has gone under this number in six of his last eight starts. He has had three or fewer strikeouts in all six of those Unders in that span, including two or fewer in four of eight.
One of those games came in his last start. In that game, Stroman struck out two Rays in a 2-1 New York victory. That outing has been the norm for Stroman when facing Rays hitters.
If you remove Yandy Diaz from the equation (Tampa placed him on the MLB Restricted List on Saturday), Tampa’s eligible batters in Sunday’s lineup have struck out just nine times in 59 combined plate appearances against Stroman.
New York’s bullpen is relatively fresh coming off the break. None of the team’s crucial relievers pitched on Saturday, and no Yankee reliever threw more than 17 pitches on Friday. This feels like a game that could mirror Stroman’s last outing when manager Aaron Boone pulled out all the stops to ensure a victory.
In that game, Stroman lasted just 4.1 innings and threw 84 pitches. Boone relied on four relievers to help the team cross the finish line. Between the matchup and a potential quick hook, I expect Stroman to fall short of recording five strikeouts on Sunday.
Trea Turner OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
I debated several different ways in which I wanted to fade Pirates starter Marco Gonzales on Sunday before landing on Trea Turner’s Total Bases prop. I have no qualms if you want to play any of Gonzales’ props or back any of the other prominent Phillies hitters in this game.
Turner is one of four Phillies (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Edmundo Sosa being the others) who enter Sunday’s game with a wRC+ of 168 or higher versus left-handed pitchers. However, Turner’s walk rate against southpaws is significantly lower than Schwarber and Harper’s. Gonzales has only thrown 72 innings since the beginning of last year, but he does have a slightly higher walk rate against left-handed hitters in that span.
Turner’s .568 slugging percentage is the 11th highest among 121 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers this season. Six of the 10 hitters in front of Turner on that list have a walk rate of 14 percent or higher against left-handers. That is much higher than Turner’s 8.2-percent mark.
That aggressive approach has suited Turner well against left-handers, especially recently. Turner has recorded multiple total bases in six of the last seven games in which Philadelphia faced a left-handed starting pitcher. He has had multiple base hits in five of those seven games.
Gonzales returned to action last week following a three-month absence due to a forearm injury. He only threw 60 pitches in his last game, which is why I am a bit wary about playing any of his props. However, he should be in long enough for Trea Turner to record at least two total bases on Sunday.
Heliot Ramos 1+ Runs Scored (-130)
If you think Trea Turner has been good against left-handed pitching this year, allow me to introduce you to Heliot Ramos.
Ramos is slugging .814 versus left-handed pitching thus far in 2024. Based on that, Ramos’ Total Bases prop (also -130 at Fanatics) is certainly in play. However, I decided to go with his Run Scored prop instead. The primary reason is the potential for Ramos to draw a walk.
He has walked in 16.4 percent of his plate appearances when facing a left-hander. Sunday’s starter for Colorado is Austin Gomber. While Gomber’s walk rate when facing a right-handed hitter at home is a reasonable 7.8 percent, he may err on the side of caution when Ramos is at the plate. As a side bet/hedge, you can bet Ramos at +220 at DraftKings to draw a free pass on Sunday.
Regardless of whether Gomber challenges Ramos or not, I expect the Giants slugger to reach base, and probably multiple times. Ramos has a .507 on-base percentage against lefties this season. Meanwhile, Gomber ranks in the bottom 10 among 70 qualified pitchers in ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP.
On top of that, Matt Chapman has a .923 OPS versus lefties this year. The trio of Patrick Bailey, Wilmer Flores, and Thairo Estrada have combined to go 11-for-30 against Gomber in their career matchups. These four hitters should hit directly behind Ramos in Sunday’s lineup.
Add it all up and you have the recipe for Heliot Ramos to score at least one run on Sunday.