MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (8/11)
There are only 13 games on Sunday, two fewer than usual. The good news is there are still several matchups we can exploit with MLB player prop bets.
Here are three of my favorite wagers for Sunday in MLB.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-128 at BetMGM)
MacKenzie Gore has been going through it lately. He entered June with a 2.91 ERA. That number now sits at 4.66. Gore has struggled in several areas, especially when it comes to efficiency. Which is why I am betting on the under on his pitching outs prop.
Gore has gone under this number in nine straight starts and 12 of his last 13. The only time he has gone over this number since Memorial Day was a game against the Marlins, who notoriously have one of the worst offenses in baseball.
While nobody is confusing the Los Angeles Angels with Murderers' Row, they have picked things up offensively against lefties.
Trends can change quickly in MLB. Last week, I bet on Jose Quintana against the Angels because they had struggled versus left-handed pitchers. But since last Sunday, that has not been the case.
Los Angeles has faced a left-handed starter in four of their last six games. Those four starters have combined to pitch to a 5.85 ERA in 20 innings. Only one of the four pitchers lasted more than five innings.
Gore has lacked command during this rough stretch. He has walked 21 batters while only striking out 30 over his last eight starts. The Angels should be able to wait him out and elevate his pitch count.
This is an early game and the Nationals have the day off on Monday. If Gore continues to struggle we could see one of Washington's long relievers such as Jordan Weems inserted into the game early. Between Gore's recent form and a matchup tougher than it appears, I am taking the under on this player prop.
Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135 at Bet365)
Jorge Soler has some distinct advantages concerning history and matchup on Sunday. I am looking to take advantage of both by playing the over on his total bases prop. I would play this up to -150.
Soler enters this game on a five-game hitting streak. He has five base hits including two home runs in the first two games of Atlanta's series in Colorado. That type of production is nothing new for Soler when hitting in Coors Field.
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Soler has 51 total bases in 16 games in Coors Field. He has gone over this number in 10 of those 16 games. Soler has five doubles and seven homers in Colorado since 2021.
His numbers in Colorado are even better over his last eight outings. Soler has 15 hits and 34 total bases in those eight games, homering in six of them. He also has an excellent history against Sunday's starter Kyle Freeland.
Soler is 5-for-11 lifetime with a home run against Freeland. What I like in particular about this matchup is that Sunday will be the third time Soler has seen Freeland since last month's All-Star Game. Freeland faced the San Francisco Giants twice immediately following the break. San Francisco then traded Soler to Atlanta. Soler should know exactly what to expect from Freeland on Sunday.
Soler has a high walk rate against left-handed pitchers this year. However, considering the ballpark and matchup versus an Atlanta offense with lots of firepower behind Soler, I expect Freeland to attack him. That should work in Soler's favor.
Atlanta’s new right fielder has a slugging percentage of .500 or better against fastballs and breaking pitches from left-handed pitchers this year. Soler is only slugging .360 against offspeed pitches from lefties. However, Freeland is allowing a .409 batting average when throwing his changeup to a right-handed batter.
Soler should get three cracks at Freeland and likely two more against the league's worst bullpen. That should be enough opportunities for him to help us cash this player prop.
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel is usually behind the curve when it comes to pricing on total base props. So I was surprised to see them post the best price at the time of this writing. If they jack the price up in the morning, you should still be able to find this between -115 and -125 on most other sportsbooks.
Teoscar Hernandez has been one of the hottest hitters in the league thus far in August. He has 14 hits in eight games, including nine extra-base hits. Hernandez has gone over this number in seven out of eight games. His only miss was a game in which he hit a single and drew a walk.
Hernandez has posted a .611 slugging percentage to go along with a 6.6% walk rate when facing a left-handed pitcher this season. That is a great combination when it comes to total base props. The Dodgers' slugger gets another favorable matchup on Sunday when the Dodgers host Bailey Falter and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Hernandez has a double and two home runs in eight lifetime plate appearances against Pittsburgh's left-hander. His aggressive approach against lefties should suit him well on Sunday. Falter is less likely to pitch around Hernandez with Freddie Freeman and Will Smith lurking behind him.
I expect Hernandez to keep up his current hot streak and record at least two total bases in this game.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: