MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (9/29)
The last day of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season is upon us. With most teams not having much to play for, we may see some odd lineups on Sunday. Because of that, sportsbooks have not put out a ton of MLB player props as of this writing. I would advise using caution when betting on player props on Sunday. With that in mind, here are my top three MLB player props for Sunday, September 29. I will also discuss some props that are not yet available.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
FanDuel Sportsbook and Fanatics were the only two sportsbooks that offered this prop as of this writing. You may be able to find better pricing on Sunday once the rest of the books catch up. As for the prop itself, there are a couple of reasons I like Luis Arraez on Sunday.
First is the matchup with Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt. To say Arraez has gotten the better of Pfaadt would be an understatement. Arraez is 9-for-13 lifetime against the Arizona right-hander.
I also like this prop because Arraez is battling Shohei Ohtani for the National League batting title. Arraez has the edge, but we have already seen Ohtani record a six-hit game earlier this month. Considering Ohtani is playing in Coors Field on Sunday, he could very well have a huge game on Sunday. If, for example, Ohtani were to go 4-for-5, Arraez would need two hits to secure a third straight batting title. That decreases the likelihood San Diego pulls Arraez from the game early.
I also may look into betting the under on Pfaadt's outs recorded prop once that becomes available. Pfaadt has a 7.07 ERA over his last 11 starts. Arizona could be eliminated with a loss on Sunday depending on what the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves do. If Pfaadt struggles early, the Diamondbacks have reinforcements such as Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery who can eat up innings in a pinch.
As a side note, I might be interested in betting on a couple of Ohtani props depending on the pricing once they become available. I would consider a bet on him recording at least two hits. I may also take a look at betting against Ohtani drawing a walk. Ohtani will likely need at least three hits to contend for the title, so he may be more aggressive than normal on Sunday.
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros have nothing to play for on Sunday. Both teams are already locked into their playoff seeds. However, Jose Ramirez has a couple of potential milestones he can reach on Sunday.
Ramirez is one home run shy of becoming the seventh player in MLB history to record a 40-40 season. I expect Ramirez to do everything he can to knock one out of the park on Sunday. He also comes into this game with 39 doubles. Though 40 doubles and 40 steals are not the same as a 40-homer/40-steal season, it would still be an impressive feat and cash the over on a total bases bet.
Houston is calling up Ryan Gusto to make his Major League debut in this game. Since the Astros are playing on Tuesday, they are not likely to use any of their high-leverage relief pitchers in this game either. Ramirez should be facing subpar pitching every time he gets to the plate on Sunday. That should increase the likelihood of him recording multiple total bases. Considering the price, this is easily one of my favorite player props for Sunday.
Alec Marsh Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 at ESPN Bet)
My final MLB player prop for Sunday is for Alec Marsh to record at least five strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves. This is another bet where I have only seen this available on one book. You may be able to beat this price on Sunday morning.
Marsh is a serviceable strikeout pitcher, posting a 23% strikeout rate this year. I will note Marsh has a slightly higher strikeout rate (26.9%) against right-handed hitters and the Braves should have at least five righties in their lineup on Sunday. Marsh has gone over this number in four straight starts and 15 of his 23 overall this season. The matchup with Atlanta is neutral in terms of strikeouts. Over the last 14 days, Atlanta has struck out in 21.8% of plate appearances versus right-handed pitching.
Given the numbers above, I think this has a pretty good chance of hitting under normal conditions. But I expect Kansas City to give Marsh a longer leash than normal considering the circumstances.
Kansas City's bullpen pitched seven innings on Saturday after an abbreviated start from Seth Lugo. The Royals will play their first playoff game on the road on Tuesday. I doubt they will want to use any high-leverage relief pitchers in this game.
The Royals will not need Marsh for the Wild Card series, and he has not pitched in 10 days. This is not to suggest they will leave him out to dry if Atlanta is knocking him around. However, I do think that as long as Marsh is reasonably effective, they will let him pitch as long as possible on Sunday. That should enable him to record enough strikeouts to cash us out.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: