MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (10/10)
Three teams from the AL Central made it to the Division Series round, and now the top two teams from the division are on the brink of elimination, as both the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals face elimination.
We are looking to build off the momentum of yesterday’s 2-0 sweep when we cashed the Tigers’ and Mets’ moneyline odds of -104 and -102, respectively.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets and picks for Thursday, October 10.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 strikeouts (-145)
Tanner Bibee went over this projected total with six strikeouts in just 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, and I would not put anyone off trying to look for an alternate strikeout total with plus-money odds on the Over of 5.5, as he has recorded six-plus strikeouts in just two of his five starts against Detroit this season.
The Game 1 start was the first time Bibee faced Detroit since July, and the Tigers had the third-worst strikeout rate (26%) in the final month of the regular season.
Detroit entered this series with 11 players with a strikeout rate or 24% or worse, and Zach McKinstry was the only hitter on the postseason roster that struck out better than 22% of the time.
If Cleveland wins there is an off-day tomorrow, but I expect Bibee will get a longer leash than the 76 pitches he threw in Game 1 given that the Guardians used six relievers in Game 3.
Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 strikeouts (-155)
Gerrit Cole turned in a subpar performance by his standards in Game 1 of the ALDS, even though the Yankees walked out with a victory. He went five innings for the second-shortest start since the calendar turned to September, and his four strikeouts were his second-lowest among his previous seven starts.
Much of Cole’s “ineffectiveness†was due to a very long layoff, as he had nine days in between the playoff start and his final regular season appearance. Cole is 10-6 with a with a 3.05 ERA in 18 career postseason starts, and has recorded at least 18 outs in 11 of the last 15. With six innings seemingly a safe floor with which to make this wager, I expect a much sharper start from the Yankees ace. After all, this should be a desirable matchup for the righty, as the Royals came into the Division Series averaging two runs per game over their previous 14 games.
Cole has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of nine career starts (including the playoffs) against Kansas City. And considering Royals hitters entered Game 1 with a combined 33.8% strikeout rate and 32% whiff rate in 157 plate appearances against Cole, I expect a big bounceback in the strikeout department.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.