MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (10/17)
For just the second time since the two LCS’s started, both the ALCS and NLCS games are played on the same day. This time it is the ALCS getting the early 5:08 time slot with the Dodgers and Mets in NLCS Game 4 in primetime. Double the games gives us double the data to scout, and we have identified our two best player props of the day.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets and picks for Thursday, October 17.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 hits (-115)
Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio has been a hitting machine this postseason. After his single in his first at-bat in the third inning of Game 2, Rocchio extended his postseason hitting streak to seven games, the longest to start a career in franchise history.
Rocchio’s 2-for-4 day improved his playoff slash line to .435/.480/.652, and he is one of two Guardians hitters with a home run in this series.
Cleveland faced New York’s two best pitchers in Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, and is hoping to find relief when righty Clarke Schmidt toes the rubber. Schmidt allowed a .228 xBA this year, but also allowed a .256 OBA on his cutter, a pitch he throws the most at 35% of the time, and hard-hit balls on 38% of balls in play. And Rocchio being a switch hitter, batting from the left side gives him a better chance of knocking a base hit, as his batting average was 17 points higher against right-handed pitchers than lefties this season.
I was tempted to back Rocchio’s Over of 0.5 singles at +140 odds thinking that if he were to produce a hit it would not be for much power (he slugged .298 against righties this year). But ultimately the -115 odds for him to just record one hit are too good to pass up given how hot of a streak he has been on.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 1.5 earned runs (-120)
If the Mets are to even this series, it is likely to do most of their damage off the Dodgers relievers. Thirty-two of New York's 45 runs this postseason have come off of opponents' bullpens.
Yamamoto was elite from a Called Strikes plus Whiffs this season, ranking in the 94th percentile in that metric. All of the pitches in his arsenal generated at least a 31.5 CSW%.
Yamamoto’s O/U of 1.5 earned runs is fair considering he is not likely to be given a long leash in this outing. The O/U on his outs recorded is 13.5 (suggesting he will not even last the requisite five innings to earn a win), with the Under carrying as high as a 57.81% implied probability based on Caesars' -137 odds.
New York had averaged 5.4 runs per game in a 14-2 stretch in its last 16 home games before yesterday’s shutout defeat, but I expect Yamamoto will do his part in silencing Mets’ bats on another chilly night tonight.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.