Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/11)

by |

No player around Major League Baseball drew more attention yesterday than Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, who made his long anticipated debut yesterday. However, today’s MLB Player Prop article focuses on a different American League slugger, as well as a darkhorse AL Cy Young contender that we expect to exceed his strikeout total.

Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday.

    Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 strikeouts (+125)

    Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal has already racked up 15 strikeouts through his first two starts (good for top 10 in the league), and his 18.3% SwStr% ranks fourth among all starting pitchers. Skubal threw six scoreless innings in his first start, and has shown a propensity for attacking the strike zone, allowing him to go deeper in games while being efficiency with his pitch count.

    Skubal has had back-to-back seasons with a FIP better than 3.00, and is on pace for his fourth season (this is his fifth season in the majors) with a K/9 rate of 9.9 or better. He has pitched to a 3.91 ERA in nine career starts against the Minnesota Twins, but should rack up the strikeouts against a Twins lineup that has struck out at the second-highest rate in the majors (28.2%). Oddsmakers also seemingly expect a strong outing from Skubal, as the 7.0-run O/U for the game is the lowest of any of the seven games on Thursday’s slate.

    Jonah Heim Over 0.5 RBIs (+140) 

    When Texas Rangers switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim gets up with runners in scoring position, he usually gets the job done. Heim batted .375 with runners in scoring position last season, and after yesterday’s two-run first-inning single, he was batting .400 (5-for-12) with runners in scoring position this year. Heim is 3-for-10 with a home run and a .400 wOBA against today’s starter, JP Sears, and Sears has struck out just 4.5% of all batters faced this season, while allowing an xSLG of .594. Sears ranked in the bottom fifth of the league (19th percentile) in barrels last year, and opposing hitters tend to do their damage against him through the air, as he ranked in the sixth percentile in ground ball rate.

    We expect Heim to drive in at least one run today as he is in his much better hitting split against a lefty, as he has a career slash line of .282/.329/.483 against southpaws, and a .215/.277/.370 slash line against righties.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

    BettingPros App