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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/2)

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Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate is limited to just six games, but that still provides us with plenty of data and opportunities to cash in on our favorite player prop bets. Bettors should be sure to get their wagers in early, as five of the six games on the day’s slate are played in the afternoon window.

Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

    Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

    Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks for today’s slate of games.

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Carlos Rodon Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125)

    The Baltimore Orioles may rank in the league’s bottom half in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. Still, their free-swinging attitude against southpaws (they rank in the bottom-11 in walk rate) has also paid huge dividends when they make contact.

    The Orioles entered Wednesday ranked in the top 10 of the majors in BABIP (.321) against southpaws and are also in the top three in slugging, wOB, and wRC+. Baltimore was one of four American League teams that entered Wednesday having played under 30 games. However, they also lead the league in scoring (157 runs is also second in the Majors), which should prove to be Carlos Rodon’s toughest test to date.

    Rodon may rank second among all Yankees starting pitchers with a 115 Stuff+ rating, but he ranks fourth on the staff in Location+ and fifth in Pitching+, which suggests he has been getting away with some poorly located pitches. Seven of Rodon’s eight strikeouts in his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers came on sliders, but the Orioles have seen a heavy dose of sliders to this point (22.8% of all pitches), which is a big reason for their success.

    Entering Wednesday, Baltimore had cashed its team total Over in 46 of its last 81 games, and we expect it to continue that trend with most of the damage coming against Rodon.

    Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Total Bases (+135) 

    Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is familiar with New York Mets starting pitcher Adrian Houser from their rivalry days in the NL Central. However, Swanson is just 2-for-11 (two singles) with three strikeouts in their head-to-head meetings.

    Swanson has made All-Star games and finished in the top 19 of MVP voting each of the last two seasons but has not performed anywhere close to that caliber so far this season, entering Wednesday with a .234/.303/.367 slash line. Swanson had raised his average from an April low of .222, with at least one base hit in nine of the previous 13 games. However, Swanson has produced just two total extra-base hits in that span (one double and one home run) and has not had an extra-base hit in any of the previous six games entering Wednesday.

    Swanson is in his much worse hitting split today, as he entered Wednesday with a .333/.500/.556 slash line against left-handed pitchers and a .213/.253/.326 slash line against righties. We expect those struggles to continue against Houser.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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