MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/23)
The Major League Baseball slate is limited to eight games today as Thursdays remain a popular getaway day. Still, that gives us plenty of data and opportunities to cash in on our favorite MLB player prop bets.
A lot of noteworthy performances have happened recently from a player prop perspective, as Rafael Devers set a Boston Red Sox franchise record with a home run in six consecutive games. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte has an active 21-game hitting streak, the first Arizona Diamondbacks hitter to reach that plateau since Paul Goldschmidt in 2013. What player props are on our radar for today?
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, May 23.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 RBIs (+245)
Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has been dominant against current New York Yankees hitters in his career, holding them to a .156/.311/.264 slash line in 90 career at-bats, with a 26.7% strikeout rate. His biggest casualty has been second baseman Gleyber Torres, as Torres is 0-for-11 against him with five strikeouts and has only reached base once via a walk in that span. However, we are willing to ride Torres’ hot streak at these generous odds, as he had seven RBIs in his last nine games entering Wednesday after driving in seven runs through his first 41 games.
Much of Torres’ success from a run production standpoint has been because of being dropped in the lineup and hitting behind sluggers like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge instead of in front of them. Torres had just two RBIs in 12 games as New York’s leadoff hitter, but his other 12 RBIs have come in his 36 combined games, either batting fifth, sixth or seventh.
His .250/.321/.343 slash line numbers are the highest in every category in this split (when facing a right-handed starting pitcher). Even if Torres struggles with Castillo again, we are getting excellent odds for him to be able to produce a sacrifice fly or even to drive in a run against Seattle’s bullpen.
Paul Skenes To Record a Win (+145)
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes has struck out 18 batters in his first two Major League starts, both of which came against the Chicago Cubs. But the flamethrower’s strikeout odds already seem too inflated, so we instead are focusing on him earning the win against a San Francisco Giants team that has won just three of its last six series,with all three of those series wins coming against last-place competition (the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies).
The Giants have six players in their projected lineup with a whiff rate of 23% or higher. While players like Jorge Soler at the top of the lineup have a .556 slugging percentage and .686 xSLG against fastballs this year, he also entered Wednesday with just one game in his last 10 with an extra-base hit. And it’s not like Skenes’ fastball is your average fastball, as he topped 101 mph with it six times in his debut alone. Baseball America reported that only 13 starting pitchers have thrown more than that since 2008 (he has 29 total pitches of 100 mph or faster thus far). He also struck out the first seven batters he faced in his last start and set a Pirates franchise record with 11 strikeouts in a road start at Wrigley Field.
We also expect the Pirates to jump out to an early lead on Giants rookie Mason Black, who has pitched to a 7.14 xERA thus far and has allowed a troubling .569 xSLG and .463 wOBA.
The Pirates had won four of five games entering Wednesday and also covered the runline in nine of their last 10 (+7.85 units/50% ROI). We expect the rookie sensation to lead them to his first victory at home.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.