MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/21)
No pitcher in Major League Baseball has been hotter over the last month than Yu Darvish, who has not allowed an earned run since April 14.
With seven shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves on “Sunday Night Baseball,†he extended his scoreless streak to 25 innings, the most ever by a Japanese pitcher. He is also the second-oldest pitcher to have consecutive scoreless starts of seven or more innings pitched with two or fewer hits allowed since 1901, behind Cy Young, per MLB’s Sarah Langs.
However, Darvish is likely more proud of the following accomplishment than his current scoreless innings streak.
Plenty of MLB player props are available on Tuesday’s loaded baseball slate, so what players are due for big games today?
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 21.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carlos Carrasco Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105)
Carlos Carrasco spent three seasons with the New York Mets in between his two stints with the Cleveland Guardians and will likely be motivated to pitch well against his former team. Carrasco has improved his 6.85 ERA in April to a much better 3.00 ERA through three May starts, largely because he has much better command of the strike zone. Carrasco walked 14 batters in 22 1/3 innings in five April starts. However, he now sports a much tidier 11:3 K:BB ratio in 18 May innings and has lowered his ERA from 5.67 to 5.16 despite losing back-to-back starts.
Carrasco has allowed a .292 batting average and a troubling .315 xwOBA in 53 combined plate appearances against current Mets hitters. Still, much of that damage has been done by J.D. Martinez (10-for-27, two home runs), who has three multi-hit games in his last five but may be plagued by flu-like symptoms that kept him out of the lineup on Sunday. Carrasco’s 7.0% barrel rate is on pace to be his best since 2018, and we expect the soft-tossing righty to keep the Mets off-balance, especially since he should be encouraged by his 50% CSW% on his fastball in his last start against the Texas Rangers.
Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 RBIs (+160)
Giancarlo Stanton is often an overlooked Yankees slugger, overshadowed by the accomplishments of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Still, Stanton is getting hot, which is scary for opposing pitchers, as he has belted three home runs in his last five games and raised his OPS by 83 points since May 9, entering Monday.
Stanton has only faced Seattle Mariners righty Bryan Woo twice in his career and went hitless with one strikeout. However, Woo is still working off the rust, with this being just his third start of the season, which means Stanton and the Yankees should get a couple of at-bats each against a Mariners bullpen that ranks outside the top 10 of the Majors in WAR.
Stanton has driven in at least one run in eight of 15 games in May, and we expect him to ride his recent hot streak, especially with his OPS+ on pace to be his best since 2021, a season in which he clubbed 35 home runs and drove in 97 runs.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Chicago Cubs slugger Cody Bellinger has had great career success against Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton, as he has slashed .455/.538/.818 with three of his five hits in 11 at-bats going for extra bases. He also has no strikeouts against Morton in that limited span.
Entering his last start, Morton had thrown his curveball 44% of the time (172/393) against left-handed batters this season, the highest rate among qualified starting pitchers in the league (the league average is 16%). At first glance, that would seem problematic for Bellinger, who has seen 55 curve balls this season and whiffed 30.8% of the time while batting .200 with a .300 slugging percentage in that split. However, Bellinger’s .274 xBA and .456 xSLG suggest positive regression is coming. If Morton is daring enough to ever throw his fastball to Bellinger, we expect the lefty to be ready, as he has slugged .462 against fastballs with a 30.2% hard-hit percentage.
Bellinger has hit safely in seven of his last eight games and is batting .327 this month after hitting .230 in April. He also has at least one extra-base hit in four of his previous five games. We feel good about this Over cashing, likely needing just one swing to do so.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.