MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)
A night after the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros met in a Game 7 in the ALCS, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies conclude their series in a Game 7. This marks the fourth time in MLB postseason history that both League Championship Series went the distance.
It was not quite the level of upset as Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson, but Arizona did what many predicted it could not do, winning on the road against a Phillies team that had been 6-0 at home in the postseason and out-scored opponents by a combined 39-6.
What player props catch our eye for the NLCS decisive Game 7 between the Diamondbacks and Phillies?
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Phillies (+110)
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte has been unbelievable this postseason, slashing .375/.400/.625, and with one more hit today, he would break a tie with Marquis Grissom for the most consecutive games (would be his 16th) with a hit to start a postseason career. As it is, Marte’s 15-game postseason hit streak is tied for the sixth-longest in postseason history.
Marte has had tremendous career success against Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez, going 8-for-18 (.444) against him, including a 2-for-3 with two doubles in Game 3. Marte has burned left-handed pitching all season, slashing .313/.382/.497 in the regular season.
Marte has scored a run in five of 11 postseason games this season, but he has multiple hits in four of the last five and five of the previous seven, so a player who has reached base safely this frequently should have plenty of opportunities to score.
Ranger Suarez Under 1.5 earned runs allowed vs. Diamondbacks (-130)
In two games started by Zack Wheeler in this series, the Diamondbacks managed just three runs in 13 innings, with nine hits and a 16-1 K:BB ratio. Why is that significant? Because while Wheeler has the best WHIP of any pitcher in postseason history (0.73), Suarez is not too far behind at 0.84 in 27 ⅓ postseason innings. In addition, Suarez has the best postseason ERA (0.94) of any pitcher with a minimum of five starts (or a minimum of eight postseason appearances), per MLB’s Paul Casella.
If this were a regular season start and Suarez was in line to throw between 85-100 pitches, we would expect him to have an O/U of 2.5 earned runs. However, DraftKings has his O/U for the number of outs recorded set at 10.5, which means four innings is likely the limit for Suarez, no matter how well he is pitching.
We can see Phillies manager Rob Thomson handling Suarez just like Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo dealt with Merrill Kelly yesterday, yanking him after five innings of one-run ball. Thomson has Zack Wheeler available for multiple innings before going to his slew of middle relievers, so this wager has as much to do with how limited Suarez’s outing projects to be rather than how ineffective he might be.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.