MLB Player Prop Bets: Alex Verdugo, Kyle Freeland, Max Muncy (Saturday)
Earlier this week, Sarah Langs took to Twitter to highlight how incredible of a start Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez is off to, as he figures to flirt with becoming the first batter since Ted Williams in 1941 to hit .400. While Arraez continues his pursuit of history, we have identified another hitter that is not enjoying nearly as much success from a batting average standpoint, and round out our column one other batter and pitcher prop wagers.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 earned runs allowed vs. Padres (-125)
Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland has pitched to a more-than-respectable 3.38 at Coors Field this year, and his WHIP, OBA, and K:BB ratio are all better at home than on the road this season. And when analyzing Freeland’s chances of success against the San Diego Padres, we prefer to look at the larger sample instead of his lone start against them this year, where he earned the win after throwing six scoreless innings. In addition, we take that result with a grain of salt, considering it was back on the second day of the season.
Freeland has allowed a .279/.367/.504 slash line in 147 combined at-bats to opposing Padres. And breaking those numbers down on an individual level is more troubling, as five Padres (Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado) all have an OPS of .856 or higher (min. 10 ABs) against the lefty. Those five players have combined for extra-base hits in 16.5% of their at-bats against Freeland, which makes it more likely that San Diego can put up crooked numbers.
The Over has cashed in five of the previous six meetings in Colorado between these teams, and with San Diego’s team total set at 6.5, we expect it to score a majority of its runs against Freeland.
Max Muncy Under 1.5 total bases vs. Phillies (-160)
While other players’ batting averages around the league have risen due to the ban in shifts (i.e., teammate Freddie Freeman), Max Muncy is still stuck batting .198 and is flirting with the danger of finishing under the Mendoza Line for the third time in four seasons.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has owned Muncy in their head-to-head meetings, as Muncy is just 1-for-15 with eight of the 14 outs coming via strikeout. Muncy has three hits in his last 29 at-bats and has gone hitless in five of his last eight games. Thus, if you believe he goes hitless again, you may be more enticed by the +125 odds for Under 0.5 hits. We are expecting Nola to complete 6+ innings for the tenth consecutive start, thus limiting Muncy’s chances of getting hits off the Phillies bullpen. However, considering Muncy has had an extra-base hit in just two of seven games this month, we do not mind paying up for his total bases prop.
Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 total bases vs. Yankees (+120)
Alex Verdugo is slashing .417/.462/.917 in 12 at-bats against Domingo German, and his 1.378 OPS in that span is the highest for any batter against an opposing pitcher on today’s slate (min. 10 AB).
Verdugo leads all Red Sox hitters by far in WAR (2.4, next closest is 1.4), and he ranks second among all qualified hitters on the team with a .814 OPS. And he is in his better-hitting split, given that his OPS is .211 points higher against righties than lefties. Per Inside Edge, Verdugo’s 91.8 average exit velocity on curveballs since last season is tied for tenth-best in MLB. That could be an issue for German, who throws his curveball 41.2% of the time, more than any other pitch.
Verdugo slashed .306/.359/.528 in nine games at Yankee Stadium last year. And while the slugger is 8-for-28 (.286) over the previous eight days with four of those hits have going for extra bases, we may cash this wager with other one big hit or another multi-hit day.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.