MLB Player Prop Bets: Juan Soto, Kyle Freeland, Cedric Mullins (Thursday)
New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso’s 18 home runs through 50 team games are the most in franchise history per ESPN Stats & Info. We cashed in on the generous +140 odds for him to drive in a run on Tuesday thanks to his fourth inning solo home run. So who do we like to go hard today, and what other prop bets caught our eye?
Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday:
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 earned runs allowed vs. Marlins (-120)
If only Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland could have every start against poor teams, we would likely view him as an All-Star and bonafide ace.
Of Freeland’s ten starts, five came against teams with a record of .500 or worse. In those starts, he has pitched to a 1.79 ERA (six earned runs in 30 ⅔ innings) compared to a 6.89 ERA against teams over .500. Freeland also has been an innings-eater, recording at least 18 outs in all five starts against non-winning teams. Not even Coors Field has helped inflate Freeland’s statistics, as he is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA at home, as compared to a 1-3 record and 4.71 ERA on the road.
Those home/road splits give us more confidence in backing Freeland in this start, despite Miami hitting well against southpaws all season. The Marlins rank in the top-10 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but they are middle-of-the-pack in ISO, ranking 14th. In addition, their sixth-ranked slugging percentage is less threatening to Freeland, who has allowed just one home run in the last 20 innings.
Betting the under has hit in six of Colorado’s last eight home games when the total was 11 runs or higher, and we believe Freeland’s prop bets do not accurately consider his success against poor teams.
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Yankees (+195)
The Baltimore Orioles’ leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins entered Wednesday on a six-game hitting streak. He went 10 for 23 in that span, with two home runs, four runs scored, six RBIs, and just one strikeout. His ability to consistently put the ball in play is a big reason for his .359 OBP, which ranks second among all Orioles hitters (min. 100 AB).
Mullins now faces New York Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who is just 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA in six home starts. Schmidt has been torched by left-handed batters, allowing five home runs and a .356 OBP. In addition, per Inside Edge, Mullins entered Wednesday with the most late-inning RBIs (20) in the majors. This means that he has an excellent chance for offensive success, even after Schmidt is removed from the game.
The over has cashed in during each of New York’s last nine home games. We expect Baltimore to turn its lineup over enough to provide Mullins with several RBI opportunities in what should be another high-scoring game.
Juan Soto to hit a home run vs. Nationals (+320)
Juan Soto was given a big ovation in his return to Nationals Park on Tuesday night, and he proceeded to club his ninth home run and finish with three hits in four at-bats. We expect that success to continue in today’s series finale, as Soto has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month.
After an 0-for-5 performance on April 26, Soto was slashing .178/.339/.383 and had just four home runs on the season. In May alone, Soto is slashing .333/.461/.639 and has four home runs and 11 RBIs. Soto now faces Washington Nationals rookie Jake Irvin, whose 6.87 xERA is worse than his 5.50 ERA through four starts. In addition, Irvin ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in xSLG, barrels, and hard-hit percentage. His 26.4% fly ball rate is also higher than the league average of 23.2%. All of this gives Soto a great chance to start and end the series against his former team with a long ball.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.