Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Friday (9/13)
We’ve got another full slate in the MLB tonight!
With so many matchups, finding the best bets on the slate can be a bit overwhelming. Therefore, I’ve done the hard part for you.
I’ve added three of my favorite player props for tonight’s MLB slate. Consider tailing them below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
DJ Herz Over 6.5 Ks (+120)
The young Washington lefty, DJ Herz, has added 31.6% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. Against his last 76 righties, he’s held them to a .015 ISO and wOBA of .225 and has added 33.1% of whiffs and 16.1% of swinging strikes.
Now he’ll take on a Marlins lineup that has struggled to make contact against lefties over the last month. The Marlins have struck out 26.4% of the time against lefties using the projected lineup over the previous month. In that lineup, every batter has struck out at least 20.6% of the time.
In addition, all but one batter will bat from the right side against Herz. Let’s take Herz to earn at least seven strikeouts at +120 odds. A quality start is very real.
Brady Basso Over 5.5 Ks (+130)
Let’s stick with some plus-money strikeout props.
Brady Basso is a left-handed pitcher for the Athletics, who has faced 34 major league batters this season. Basso has struck out 26.5% of those batters, holding them to a .121 ISO and wOBA of .224 with only 2.9% of walks.
Additionally, he’s earned 32.2% of whiffs and 15.1% of swinging strikes and is pitching against the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have hit a .025 ISO and wOBA of .235 with their projected lineup over the last month against lefties. The team has also struck out 30.5% of the time, with seven of the nine batters striking out at least 23.1% of the time against lefties.
Basso threw 85 pitches in his last start. He can get to 90+ pitches in this start and add a high strikeout rate. Take his Over.
Matt Wallner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Over the last month, Twins lefty Matt Wallner has rocked a .328 ISO and wOBA of .388 against his last 74 righties. He’s hit 46.3% of fly balls and 63.4% of hard contact. In addition, he’s nailed a team-best 14.6% barrel percentage and has hit ground balls below 30% of the time over the last month against righties.
Tonight, he’ll battle Cincinnati’s Julian Aguiar. Aguiar has allowed a .326 ISO and wOBA of .373 against his last 45 lefties. He’s also allowed 45.7% of hard contact and 40% of fly balls. Furthermore, Aguiar has struck out only 17.8% of lefties in the last month and has induced just 28.6% of ground balls.
This is a really good matchup for Wallner to add an extra base hit. While his strikeout rate is high against righties, Aguiar has only recorded 8.4% of swinging strikes and really isn’t much of a threat in that department. Roll with Wallner to add at least two total bases tonight.