Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Friday (9/20)
With a full 15-game slate on the horizon, I’ve added my favorite three player props for tonight’s MLB slate.
With the postseason approaching, these 15-game slates won’t be around much longer! Enjoy it while you can!
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
The Toronto Blue Jays have few threats in the lineup against lefties. However, Alejandro Kirk has been reliable.
He’s smacked a .280 ISO and wOBA of .405 against his last 26 lefties. The right-handed catcher has also struck out just 15.4% of the time while hitting 71.4% of hard contact.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Tyler Alexander of the Rays. Alexander is a lefty who has allowed a .404 ISO and wOBA of .428 to his last 60 righties. Those same 60 righties have only struck out 11.7% of the time and have hit more than 41% of fly balls.
He’s also allowed 43.1% of hard contact to those last 60 righties and has earned only 8.5% of swinging strikes.
Let’s back Kirk to add at least two total bases tonight.
Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
The Marlins will pitch Valente Bellozo tonight. Bellozo is a righty who has allowed a .413 ISO and a .456 wOBA to his last 53 righties.
In addition, Bellozo gave up 37.2% of fly balls to righties and only 30.2% of ground balls at that time. He’s also earned just 7.5% of strikeouts over the last month against righties.
He’ll battle Jorge Soler of the Braves, who has hit a .259 ISO and wOBA of .375 against his last 65 righties. Soler has added a 63.2% hard contact rate and has used a 21.1% barrel percentage against righties, which leads the Braves over the last 30 days.
There’s a good chance Soler gets ahold of one against Bellozo tonight.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
In the last 30 days. Corbin Carroll has hit a .246 ISO and wOBA of .359 against his last 75 righties. During that time, Carroll has struck out only 18.7% of the time against righties and has hit 52% of hard contact. The left-hander has also added 32% of fly balls, 24% of line drives, and a 12% barrel percentage against righties in the last 30 days.
Carroll will match up against Colin Rea of the Brewers tonight. Rea has only struck out 9.3% of lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed a .244 ISO and wOBA of .456 to his previous 43 lefties. Additionally, he’s allowed 37.8% of fly balls and has given up 62.2% of hard contact.
Furthermore, Rea has only earned 6.2% of swinging strikes and rarely earns whiffs against lefties.
Carroll hasn’t had the best of luck against righties over the last 30 days. After all, he’s only hit a BABIP of .255. But if he continues to limit ground balls, use the barrel, earn hard contact, and continue to add fly balls and line drives with a low strikeout rate, he’ll start to see his numbers improve against righties.
This is the perfect matchup for Carroll to get his BABIP trending upwards against righties.