Top 5 MLB Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions for Friday (9/2)
We have a loaded Friday night slate on tap. While your card may be filled with sides and totals, player props could also help pad your wallet. That’s where I’ve got you covered with my top five player props of the slate.
Three of them are plus money so let’s not waste any more time and break down how we’re getting to the window today.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Texas vs. Boston 7:10 pm ET
Xander Bogaerts has been red hot of late as he’s hitting .464 with an OPS of 1.234 over his last seven games. Tonight he gets to face Dallas Keuchel, who has been hit around the league this year as he’s enters with a 7.88 ERA for his third team this season. In addition, Bogaerts has seen him quite a bit as he’s five for 20 against him in his career with one homer. Given how hot Bogaerts has been and how terrible Keuchel has been, this is a perfect match for some extra bases.
Austin Riley Under 0.5 Hits (+165)
Miami vs. Atlanta 7:20 pm ET
Saying that Sandy Alcantara has had Austin Riley’s number may be putting it lightly. In 21 career matchups, Riley is hitting just .190 with a 41 percent strikeout rate against Alcantara. However, he’s actually due to be hitting worse, as his average exit velocity is just 79.5 mph. That makes his xBA and xSLG a microscopic .089 and .096. With Alcantara being the workhorse he is, Riley will likely see him three times, bringing his chances of getting a hit far lower than these odds.
Sandy Alcantara Over 19.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Miami vs. Atlanta 7:20 pm ET
Sticking with the theme of Alcantara dominating the Braves hitters, him going over this outs total is highly likely as well. As I said in the Riley play, Alcantara leads the majors in the innings pitched, and his two outings against the Braves have helped him get there. He faced them in back-to-back outings in May, where he threw a complete game shutout and followed it up with eight innings of one-run ball. Now the Braves are not the only victims of Alcantara’s workhorse mentality. He has gone over this total in 69.2 percent of his starts which gives us -225 implied odds he will go over again.
Davis Martin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Minnesota vs. Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm ET
Davis Martin has served as a long man out of the pen and spot starter for the White Sox this season. However, despite the length he’s been able to give his club, he does not rack up strikeouts. He has made nine appearances and has gone three innings or more in eight of them. Martin has only totaled four or more strikeouts in two of those eight lengthy outings. The Twins are a formidable lineup that does not strike out that much, and they enter with the 18th highest strikeout rate in the majors. As a result, the implied odds and the matchup are heavily in our favor for this plus-money price.
Reid Detmers Over 1.5 Walks (-120)
Houston vs. Los Angeles Angels 9:38 pm ET
While Reid Detmers has pitched much better since being recalled, he has still been unable to limit the free passes. He has gone over this total in 65 percent of his starts this year, including eight of his last 10 outings. The Astros are a formidable lineup that Detmers will likely be careful with. They also have the eighth-highest walk rate in the majors entering tonight. So bank on the walks to pile up for Detemers as this price should be much higher.
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