Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Wednesday (9/18)
The MLB regular season has just a week and a half left. Let’s wager against some of the weakest pitchers on the slate.
We won’t have that opportunity much longer!
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Connor Norby Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Over the last 30 days, Connor Norby has hit a .306 ISO and wOBA of .419 against his last 56 righties. Norby is right-handed himself but has added more than 24% of line drives and a 10.8% barrel percentage with a .333 BABIP against righties in the last 30 days.
He’ll go up against Landon Knack of the Dodgers. Knack is a righty who has allowed a .272 ISO and wOBA of .361 to his first 111 righties in the big leagues. He’s also given up a .462 ISO and wOBA of .609 to his last 15 righties. Ultimately, Knack is getting hit hard by righties. He’s allowed 53.1% of hard contact this season and 77.8% of hard contact from righties over the last 15 plate appearances.
Let’s take Norby to add at least two total bases tonight.
Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Ks (-150)
Although Tanner Houck has struggled to earn strikeouts against lefties, he’s totaled 33.3% of strikeouts against his last 39 righties. Those 39 righties haven’t walked once and have hit a .105 ISO and wOBA of .242 against him this season.
Houck will face a Rays lineup that has struck out 29% of the time. In that projected lineup, there are more righties than lefties. The five righties in the lineup have combined to strike out 28.2% of the time. Meanwhile, the four lefties have also struck out 29.9% of the time.
Houck should at least total three or four strikeouts against righties and then add another strike out against one of the lefties. He’s got so many opportunities for strikeouts. Let’s back his Over.
Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Alec Marsh will take the hill for the Royals tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has been smacked around by lefties recently. Marsh’s last 47 lefties have hit a .366 ISO and wOBA of .444 with 51.5% of hard contact. He’s also earned just 8.2% of swinging strikes, resulting in only 17% of strikeouts over the last 30 days against lefties.
He’ll battle Riley Greene of the Tigers, a lefty who has hit a .231 ISO and wOBA of .400 against his last 78 righties. Greene has hit 55.3% of hard contact against these righties and has launched 29.8% of line drives with more than 25% of fly balls. He’s also hit a 10.6% barrel percentage against righties and has a .349 BABIP.
The Royals might make the playoffs. But if Kansas City wants to win some games, it’ll be hard to justify throwing Marsh out there with his struggles against lefties. He’s ultimately the No. 5 guy in the rotation and likely won’t get any starts in the postseason if the Royals make it.
Therefore, we’re riding Riley Greene to earn at least two total bases tonight.