Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Friday (10/18)
There are two MLB postseason matchups on the horizon tonight.
At 5:08 pm ET, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the opportunity to clinch a World Series berth over the New York Mets. They’re up 3-1 in the series and will have Jack Flaherty on the hill.
After the Mets-Dodgers NLCS Game 5, the Cleveland Guardians will look to tie things up against the New York Yankees. New York won its first two games of the series at home, but Cleveland responded with a walk-off win in Game 3. Now the Guardians can tie things up heading into Game 5.
Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s MLB playoff action.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Jack Flaherty absolutely destroyed the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS. Make no mistake.
However, Flaherty’s stats against righties over the last month are still suspect. Flaherty has allowed a .256 ISO and wOBA of .327 against his last 50 righties. He’s also given up 62.5% of hard contact and 40.6% of fly balls. Beyond that, he’s struck out only 22% of righties and has induced only 28.1% of ground balls.
That stat line should have Mark Vientos excited. Vientos, a righty himself, has slugged a .232 ISO and wOBA of .347 against his last 58 righties.
Vientos is easily the hottest hitter on the Mets and has smacked 55.9% of hard contact with a 14.7% barrel percentage. He’s also hit more fly balls than ground balls against righties over the last month.
Let’s take a chance on Vientos to earn at least two total bases tonight.
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
The Guardians haven’t had much success against righties over the last 30 days. After all, Cleveland’s projected lineup has only hit a .140 ISO and wOBA of .282 against righties over the previous month.
However, Jose Ramirez is one of the few that have dominated righties. The switch-hitter will bat lefty and take on Luis Gil of the Yankees.
Gil has allowed a .211 ISO and wOBA of .409 to his last 22 lefties. He’s also struck lefties out just 9.1% of the time and has given up more than 47% of fly balls to lefties in the last month.
Gil typically falls behind against lefties, walking 13.6% of the time. But Ramirez doesn’t walk much against righties. He’s only added 6.1% of walks against righties. He’s up there to hit. That said, the good news is he’ll likely hit in hitters counts and get pitches he can rock. Take his Over.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
The Guardians will throw Gavin Williams tonight. Williams is a right-handed thrower who has allowed a .176 ISO and wOBA of .351 to 158 righties this season.
Williams has only thrown against 22 batters over the last 30 days, but throughout the season, he’s struggled a bit against righties. He’s got a lower strikeout rate and has allowed more hard contact. He’s also given up over 25% of line drives to righties this season.
Conversly, Aaron Judge is red-hot for the Yankees. The likely AL MVP has hit a .513 ISO and wOBA of .467 against his last 51 righties. He’s also hit 59.3% of fly balls and only 18.5% of ground balls in that time. Beyond that, he’s added 77.8% of hard contact and a ridiculous 33.3% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
Take Judge to add at least two total bases tonight.