Top MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Guardians vs. Yankees (Tuesday)
The ALCS is the only show in town on Tuesday, as the NLCS teams have a travel day coming back to New York. The Yankees took Game 1 behind a dominant pitching performance by Carlos Rodon, and now have their ace going in Gerrit Cole, which could be a scary proposition for the Guardians. How does Cole factor into our player prop bets for today?
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, October 15.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Steven Kwan 2+ hits (+265)
Steven Kwan has awful career numbers against Gerrit Cole, going 2-for-13 with two strikeouts and a .368 OPS. However, this is a four-star play because of what Kwan has done in the postseason.
Kwan set a Guardians franchise record for hits in a division series (11). He also entered Game 1 with a .392 postseason batting average, the highest by far in franchise history among players with a minimum of 50 at-bats (the next-closest players are Carlos Baerga and Marquis Grissom at .292).
Prior to his 1-for-4 performance in Game 1, Kwan had three straight multi-hit playoff games, and at least one base hit in 10 of 11 games dating back to the end of the regular season. And the one game he did not record a hit, he still was on base three times with two walks and a hit by pitch.
Kwan’s -205 odds to go Over 0.5 hits are too steep to play in isolation, and the only other play I considered was his +160 odds to score a run. However, I prefer the +265 odds for him to turn in a multi-hit day given how frequently he has done that recently.
Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 earned runs (+110)
Carlos Rodon struck out nine Guardians hitters in six innings in an impressive Game 1 performance, but instead of backing Cole’s strikeout prop at +100 odds for the Over of 5.5, I am more interested in Cole’s Under of earned runs.
The Yankees won both of Cole’s starts in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, with the righty pitching to a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings.
Cole is 4-2 in seven career postseason starts since joining the Yankees, and he faces a Guardians lineup that had a 93 wRC+ in the second half of the season, the lowest of any playoff team.
New York also had a big edge in terms of bullpen rest entering this series. In the ALDS, Yankees relievers pitched 15 2/3 scoreless innings with 15 strikeouts. The Yankees only needed three innings from their bullpen yesterday, so manager Aaron Boone may use that strength more while monitoring Cole’s pitch count, knowing he will potentially need a lot of outs from him in a more high leverage situation later in this series.
The last reason for liking the Under on Cole’s earned runs is the weather forecast. The swirling winds in the Bronx yesterday killed many fly balls that may have been home runs in warm summer months, and for tonight’s game, temperatures are expected to drop in the high 30s.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.